Can Sevilla exploit Madrid’s defensive reshuffle? Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction – 18.10.2026
Real Madrid and Sevilla meet at the Santiago Bernabéu on Sunday, October 18, in one of the standout fixtures of LaLiga Matchday 9. José Mourinho’s side are fourth with 18 points from eight matches, while Luis García Plaza’s Sevilla sit just one place behind them with 14 points. The hosts possess the greater individual quality, but the visitors’ attacking consistency makes this a potentially uncomfortable evening for Madrid.
Real Madrid: Vinicius suspension changes Mourinho’s attacking options
Real Madrid approach this game after two consecutive victories. They edged Villarreal 1-0 in LaLiga before producing a dramatic comeback to beat Roma 4-3 in the Champions League. The results have been positive, although conceding three times in Rome once again showed that Mourinho’s team can be vulnerable when a match becomes stretched.
Madrid have collected six wins from eight league games, scoring 19 goals and conceding eight. Their attacking depth remains impressive, with Kylian Mbappé supported by Jude Bellingham, Arda Güler and Yan Diomande, but Vinicius Junior will not be available against Sevilla. The Brazilian is serving a four-match LaLiga suspension following his red card against Villarreal.
Mourinho also has problems in defence. Éder Militão, Ferland Mendy and Raúl Asencio remain sidelined, while Rodrygo is another long-term absentee. Even with those losses, Madrid should still spend long periods in Sevilla’s half and create enough opportunities to score at home.
Sevilla: goals are coming regularly, but so are chances for opponents
Sevilla have made an encouraging start under Luis García Plaza. After eight rounds they have 14 points, with 13 goals scored and 12 conceded. Most importantly for this matchup, Sevilla have found the net in every single LaLiga game this season.
Their latest league fixture perfectly illustrated both sides of the team. Sevilla drew 3-3 away to Levante after goals from Robbie Ure, Félix Correia and Isaac Romero. They carried a constant threat going forward, but failed to protect their advantage and conceded a dramatic equaliser deep into stoppage time.
There are personnel issues here as well. Isaac Romero is suspended after receiving a second yellow card against Levante, while Jon Guridi has suffered an adductor injury. Marcão, Miguel Sierra and Iker Muñoz are also unavailable, while Giorgi Kochorashvili has been doing individual recovery work. On the positive side, Lucas Stassin has returned to group training and gives García Plaza another attacking option.
Key absences
- Real Madrid: Vinicius Junior is suspended; Éder Militão, Ferland Mendy, Raúl Asencio and Rodrygo are sidelined.
- Sevilla: Isaac Romero is suspended; Jon Guridi, Marcão, Miguel Sierra and Iker Muñoz are unavailable.
Match facts and head-to-heads
- Real Madrid have scored 19 goals in eight LaLiga matches this season.
- Sevilla have scored in all eight of their league fixtures.
- Sevilla have 13 goals scored and 12 conceded after eight rounds.
- The visitors’ latest league match ended in a 3-3 draw with Levante.
- Real Madrid have won the last five league meetings between the teams.
Madrid should create chances, but Sevilla can answer: Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction
Madrid’s attacking quality and home advantage make a goal from Mourinho’s side highly likely, even without Vinicius. Mbappé, Bellingham, Güler and Diomande give the hosts several different ways to break down a Sevilla defence that has already conceded 12 times in the league.
However, backing only a comfortable Madrid victory looks less attractive given the hosts’ defensive absences and the three goals they conceded in Rome. Sevilla have scored in every LaLiga fixture so far, and even without Isaac Romero they still possess enough pace and creativity through Ure, Félix Correia, Youssouf Fofana and Rubén Vargas to exploit space in transition. An open game in which both sides find the net looks like the most interesting scenario.
Prediction: Both teams to score — Yes.
