Can Poljud expose Ajax's defensive weaknesses? Hajduk Split vs Ajax prediction – 15.10.2026
On Thursday, October 15, Hajduk Split will host Ajax at Stadion Poljud in the opening round of the 2026/27 UEFA Conference League league phase. Kick-off is scheduled for 18:45. The Dutch giants arrive as favorites, but their recent defensive problems and Hajduk's impressive home form suggest the visitors could face a much tougher challenge than expected.
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Hajduk Split: Derby triumph provides a major confidence boost
Gonzalo García's team approach their European opener in excellent spirits after securing an important 2-1 victory over Dinamo Zagreb on October 10. Hajduk fell behind early but responded through an own goal before Abdoulie Sanyang, better known as Bamba, scored the winner in the 59th minute.
The result confirmed Hajduk's ability to compete with strong opposition, particularly at Poljud, where the atmosphere can become a significant factor. The Split club have won six of their opening nine Croatian league matches, scoring 18 goals and conceding nine.
Their European qualifying campaign also demonstrated considerable attacking potential. Hajduk eliminated Polish side Raków Częstochowa in a dramatic play-off tie, winning 5-4 on aggregate after a 3-2 away victory following extra time.
Michele Šego remains an important attacking figure, while Sanyang, Dalisson and Marin Šotiček provide pace and creativity in advanced positions. However, midfielder Adrion Pajaziti missed the Dinamo derby through injury, leaving some uncertainty over his availability.
Hajduk are not without weaknesses. Their 3-0 defeat away to Rijeka in September exposed problems when opponents press aggressively and exploit space behind the defensive line. Against Ajax, defensive concentration will be essential.
Ajax: Impressive firepower, but defensive problems persist
Under Míchel Sánchez, Ajax have developed an attacking approach built around possession, aggressive pressing and quick combinations in the final third. However, their defensive performances have been far less convincing.
The Amsterdam club have failed to win their last two Eredivisie matches, drawing 2-2 against Excelsior and 1-1 against NEC. More concerning is the fact that Ajax have conceded in five consecutive league games.
Nevertheless, their attacking numbers remain impressive. Across those five matches, Ajax scored 14 goals, highlighting the quality available to Sánchez despite the disappointing results.
Their Conference League qualifying campaign followed a similar pattern. Ajax eliminated Swiss side Sion with a remarkable 9-5 aggregate victory, scoring four goals away and another five at home while exposing defensive vulnerabilities in both encounters.
Julian Brandt and Oscar Gloukh offer creativity between the lines, while Viktor Tsygankov provides another dangerous attacking option. Toluwalase Arokodare, who scored against NEC, is expected to shoulder additional responsibility in attack.
Ajax also have personnel problems. Kasper Dolberg underwent knee surgery and is expected to remain sidelined for an extended period. Anton Gaaei, Daley Blind, Steven Berghuis and Caio Henrique all missed the NEC match because of fitness issues, with their availability for the trip to Split still uncertain.
Match facts and head-to-head record
- Hajduk have won four of their last five Croatian league matches.
- Ajax have scored 14 goals and conceded eight in their last five Eredivisie games.
- Both teams have scored in each of Ajax's last five league matches.
- Hajduk eliminated Raków 5-4 on aggregate in Conference League qualifying.
- Ajax scored nine goals but conceded five against Sion in the play-offs.
- The teams last met in the 1994/95 Champions League quarter-finals. Ajax advanced 3-0 on aggregate after a goalless draw in Split.
Both teams have the attacking quality to find the net: Hajduk Split vs Ajax prediction
Ajax undoubtedly possess greater individual quality and considerably more attacking options. Their ability to create chances and maintain pressure should make them dangerous throughout the match.
However, Sánchez's side have struggled to maintain defensive stability, conceding against opponents significantly less dangerous than Hajduk at Poljud.
The Croatian side will enter this encounter with confidence after defeating Dinamo Zagreb and should be capable of creating opportunities through quick transitions and aggressive wing play.
Ajax are likely to control possession and generate plenty of chances, but backing them to keep a clean sheet looks risky. Hajduk have enough attacking quality to exploit the visitors' defensive mistakes, while Ajax's offensive strength makes a goal at the other end highly probable.
Prediction: Both teams to score – Yes.
