Can Greece upset Germany again? Greece vs Germany prediction — 04.10.2026
Greece and Germany meet on Sunday, October 4, at Toumba Stadium in Thessaloniki in the fourth round of UEFA Nations League A, Group 2. Ivan Jovanović’s team lead the section with seven points from three matches, while Germany sit third on four, making this an important game in the race for the top positions.
Greece: unbeaten leaders lose one of their main attacking weapons
Greece have been one of the early surprises of this Nations League campaign. They opened with a 2-1 victory over Serbia, then produced a historic 1-0 away win against Germany before drawing 2-2 with the Netherlands. Jovanović’s side even led the Dutch 2-0 at half-time thanks to goals from Fotis Ioannidis and Giorgos Masouras, but were unable to protect the advantage after the break.
The previous meeting with Germany was particularly significant: Dimitris Kourbelis scored the only goal in Augsburg, giving Greece their first-ever victory over Germany. That result once again highlighted the strengths of Jovanović’s team — a compact defensive structure, patience without the ball and an ability to punish mistakes quickly.
However, Greece now have an important personnel problem. Christos Tzolis suffered a hamstring injury against the Netherlands and has left the national-team camp, ruling him out of Sunday’s game. Masouras, who replaced him and then scored against the Dutch, is the natural candidate to enter the starting lineup. Ioannidis and Vangelis Pavlidis should once again provide the main threat through the middle.
Germany: Klopp's second squad showed a much more aggressive side
Germany finally recorded their first victory under Jürgen Klopp on Thursday, beating Serbia 2-0 in Munich. Tom Bischof opened the scoring before Florian Wirtz added the second, and the overall performance was considerably sharper than in the 1-0 loss to Greece. Germany pressed aggressively, controlled possession for long stretches and created enough chances to win comfortably.
Klopp deliberately divided his squad into two groups during this international window, meaning the team that will play in Thessaloniki is significantly different from the one beaten by Greece in Augsburg. Joshua Kimmich was sent home as part of the pre-planned rotation, while Nico Schlotterbeck is unavailable because of an ankle injury. Serge Gnabry has also left the camp as Germany decided not to take any further risks with his workload.
That leaves Florian Wirtz as the central figure in Germany’s attack. His combination with Aleksandar Pavlović and Bischof worked particularly well against Serbia, while Said El Mala and Lennart Karl are among the options to replace Gnabry. Finn Dahmen is also expected to start in goal, which would make him the fourth different goalkeeper used by Klopp in his first four matches.
Probable lineups
- Greece: Tzolakis; Saliakas, Mavropanos, Retsos, Tsimikas; Karetsas, Kourbelis, Androutsos, Masouras; Pavlidis, Ioannidis.
- Germany: Dahmen; Treu, Thiaw, Anton, Mittelstädt; Pavlović, Bischof, Wirtz; El Mala, Woltemade, Scherhant.
Match facts and head-to-head record
- Greece are unbeaten after three Nations League matches, with two wins and one draw.
- Germany earned their first win under Jürgen Klopp by beating Serbia 2-0.
- Greece’s 1-0 victory in Augsburg was their first-ever win against Germany.
- Across 11 meetings, Germany have seven victories, Greece have one, while three games ended in draws.
Germany can respond in Thessaloniki: Greece vs Germany prediction
The first meeting showed exactly how dangerous Greece can be when they are allowed to defend compactly and wait for mistakes. Playing in Thessaloniki should make Jovanović’s side even more uncomfortable to face, and Germany cannot expect an easy evening.
There are, however, important differences compared with the match in Augsburg. Klopp’s refreshed team played with much greater intensity against Serbia, the Pavlović-Bischof-Wirtz combination gave Germany more creativity through the middle, and Wirtz in particular looks capable of deciding a tight game. Greece will also miss Tzolis, whose pace and directness are especially valuable when the team attacks in transition.
Germany remain a team in transition, but the performance against Serbia was their clearest step forward under Klopp so far. I expect another competitive match, but this time the visitors should create enough chances to take revenge for last week’s defeat and leave Thessaloniki with three points.
Prediction: Germany to win.
