Can Greece Take Advantage of Serbia's Poor Form to Secure a Crucial Victory? Prediction | November 16, 2026
On November 16, Greece will host Serbia in the final round of the UEFA Nations League League A, Group 2. The teams approach this fixture in very different situations. Greece are still fighting for a place in the playoffs, while Serbia have lost all five of their previous matches and are already bottom of the group.
Greece
Greece have enjoyed a relatively strong Nations League campaign, especially considering that they competed in League B last season. They secured promotion after defeating Scotland in the playoff, earning a place League A.
The Greeks made a promising start, opening the campaign with a victory over Serbia before drawing against the Netherlands and Germany. However, their unbeaten run came to an abrupt end in the previous round, when they suffered a heavy 0-7 defeat to the Netherlands. Greece currently sit second with eight points. They need to beat Serbia to maintain their chances of reaching the playoffs, although their final position will also depend on the result of the Netherlands' match against Germany.
The team's statistics show that their attacking output has not always been consistent. Greece have scored five goals in five matches, with all of them coming from inside the penalty area. They have registered 17 shots on target, but their 23 attempts off target and 15 blocked efforts highlight some problems with finishing and shot selection. Their average possession of 42.2% is also relatively low, although their 79% passing accuracy indicates that they can still circulate the ball reliably.
Defensively, Greece have conceded 10 goals and kept two clean sheets. They have made 156 ball recoveries and recorded 21 goalkeeper saves, showing that their defensive unit has had to deal with considerable pressure during the campaign.
- Possible Greece lineup: Tzolakis, Rota, Mavropanos, Retsos, Tsimikas, Karetsas, Triantis, Androutsos, Tzolis, Pavlidis, Ioannidis.
Serbia
Serbia, meanwhile, have struggled throughout the current campaign. Last season, they finished third in their League A group and retained their place in the top division after defeating Austria in the playoffs. However, they have been unable to reproduce that level of performance this time around.
The visitors have lost all five of their matches and have yet to collect a single point. They have scored four goals and conceded 11, leaving them at the bottom of the standings. Their relegation from League A is now unavoidable, so they have little to play for in terms of the group standings.
Serbia's attacking numbers are similar to Greece's in terms of shots on target, with 17 attempts registered. However, they have scored only four goals, while their 17 shots off target and four blocked efforts show that their attacking opportunities have not consistently produced results. Their average possession of 36.8% is lower than Greece's, although their passing accuracy of 78.8% is almost identical.
The defensive record is another concern. Serbia have conceded 11 goals and are yet to keep a clean sheet. Their goalkeeper has made 27 saves, six more than Greece's, which reflects the amount of pressure the team have faced.
- Possible Serbia lineup: Milinkovic-Savic, Nedeljkovic, Gudelj, Milenkovic, Babic, Sukacev, Samardzic, Dzodic, Milinkovic-Savic, Cvetkovic, Tadic.
Head-to-Head
The history of meetings between Greece and Serbia includes relatively few competitive fixtures, with most previous encounters taking place in friendly matches. Greece won the meeting between the sides earlier in the current Nations League campaign. Overall, Greece have recorded two victories in the previous head-to-head matches, while Serbia have won once.
Key Trends
- Serbia have lost all 5 of their Nations League matches.
- Greece have kept 2 clean sheets, while Serbia have yet to record one.
- Greece have won 2 of the previous head-to-head meetings, compared with 1 victory for Serbia.
Prediction
Greece have considerably more at stake in this final round. They need all three points to keep their playoff hopes alive, while Serbia have already lost their chance to improve their position in the group. The hosts also have the advantage in the previous head-to-head record and have shown more consistent results throughout the campaign. The 0-7 defeat to the Netherlands remains a major concern for Greece, particularly given their defensive record. Nevertheless, Serbia's five consecutive losses, lack of clean sheets and difficulties under pressure make the visitors a vulnerable opponent. Greece have a stronger case to control this encounter and respond positively after their previous setback. Recommended Bet: Greece to Win
