Can Denmark stop Jorge Jesus' perfect start? Denmark vs Portugal prediction - 01.10.2026
Denmark and Portugal meet at Parken in Copenhagen on Thursday, October 1, in the third round of UEFA Nations League League A Group 4. Portugal lead the section with six points from two matches, while Denmark have three and need a result to avoid allowing the defending champions to open up a significant early gap.
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Denmark: a convincing response, but injuries are becoming a problem
Brian Riemer's team began the Nations League campaign with a frustrating 3-2 defeat away to Norway, despite goals from Mikkel Damsgaard and Rasmus Højlund. Denmark reacted well three days later, beating Wales 2-0 at Parken. The Danes controlled 62% of possession, registered 20 shots and eventually broke through after the interval, with a Ben Davies own goal followed by Gustav Isaksen's strike.
The performance against Wales underlined what Denmark can offer at home. Riemer's side are comfortable pressing high, their double pivot of Morten Hjulmand and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg gives them physical presence in midfield, while Damsgaard, Højlund and Isaksen can create problems in transition.
However, the squad has been hit hard by injuries. Patrick Dorgu damaged his left thigh against Wales and has returned to his club, ruling him out against Portugal. Alexander Bah, Andreas Christensen, Albert Grønbæk and Kasper Dolberg had already dropped out during this international period. Andreas Skov Olsen and Nikolas Nartey have since been called up as reinforcements.
Isaksen is another player whose workload will have to be carefully managed. Riemer admitted after the Wales game that the winger is still building fitness following a long injury lay-off and is unlikely to complete 90 minutes in both remaining matches of this window.
Portugal: two wins from two and João Félix is thriving
Portugal's transition from Roberto Martínez to Jorge Jesus has started smoothly. The reigning Nations League champions opened with a 1-0 victory over Wales before winning 2-1 away to Norway, giving Jesus a perfect six points from his first two competitive matches in charge. João Félix scored in both games, while Gonçalo Ramos grabbed the winner in Oslo.
The Norway match was particularly significant because Portugal won without Cristiano Ronaldo starting or even coming off the bench. Jesus has already demonstrated that reputation alone will not determine his selections, and Portugal have enough attacking depth to rotate between Ronaldo, Ramos, Félix, Rafael Leão, Pedro Neto and Francisco Trincão.
There is also good news concerning Bruno Fernandes. He missed the Norway game because of physical discomfort but returned to full training on Monday without limitations and is available to face Denmark. Francisco Conceição is less certain after suffering a knock in Oslo and remains under medical observation.
Probable lineups
- Denmark: Filip Jørgensen; Rasmus Kristensen, Joachim Andersen, Oliver Provstgaard, Joakim Mæhle; Morten Hjulmand, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg; Gustav Isaksen, Mikkel Damsgaard, Mohamed Daramy; Rasmus Højlund.
- Portugal: Diogo Costa; João Cancelo, Rúben Dias, Renato Veiga, Nuno Mendes; João Palhinha, João Neves; Pedro Neto, Bruno Fernandes, João Félix; Gonçalo Ramos.
Denmark used virtually this structure against Wales, with Daramy replacing the injured Dorgu after half an hour. Portugal, meanwhile, started Ramos and Félix together in Oslo, and Fernandes' return gives Jesus another option between the lines.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Portugal have won both Nations League matches this season and lead Group A4 with six points.
- Denmark have scored four goals in their first two group games.
- João Félix has scored in each of Portugal's first two Nations League fixtures.
- Portugal have won 11 of the 17 previous meetings, with Denmark recording four victories.
- The teams met twice in the 2024/25 Nations League quarter-finals: Denmark won 1-0 at Parken, before Portugal responded with a 5-2 extra-time victory in Lisbon to advance 5-3 on aggregate.
Denmark can make it difficult again, but Portugal have more solutions
The previous meeting in Copenhagen is an obvious warning for Portugal. Denmark pressed aggressively that night, created the better opportunities and deserved their 1-0 victory. Parken remains a difficult venue, and Riemer's team showed against Wales that they can impose themselves when given the initiative.
The difference this time is the depth available to the visitors and Denmark's growing list of absentees. Dorgu's injury removes an important source of pace on the left, while the absence of Christensen and Bah further limits Riemer's defensive options. Portugal arrive with two wins from two, João Félix in excellent scoring form and Bruno Fernandes available again.
Jesus also has far more room to alter the attacking structure during the game. Ramos gave Portugal mobility and pressing against Norway, Ronaldo remains an alternative, and players such as Leão, Neto and Trincão can change the tempo from wide areas.
Denmark should have periods where they push Portugal back, especially with the support of the Parken crowd, but over 90 minutes the visitors' deeper squad and greater range of attacking solutions could become decisive. At the current price, backing the Group A4 leaders to collect a third consecutive victory looks attractive.
Prediction: Portugal to win.
