Can Belarus repeat their four-goal victory? San Marino vs Belarus prediction – 12.11.2026
Belarus
On Thursday, November 12, 2026, San Marino will host Belarus at the San Marino Stadium in Serravalle in the fifth round of the UEFA Nations League C, Group 1. Kick-off is scheduled for 20:45 Central European Time. The visitors remain firmly involved in the race for first place, while San Marino have already been condemned to finish bottom of the group. With the teams separated by a considerable gap in quality and recent results, Belarus will be looking for another convincing victory.
San Marino: Defensive struggles continue in League C
San Marino have endured a difficult return to League C. Roberto Cevoli's side have lost all four matches in the current Nations League campaign, scoring just once and conceding 16 goals.
Their tournament began with a humiliating 7-0 home defeat against Finland, followed by another disappointing result against Albania, who won 3-0 in Serravalle.
The following encounter with Belarus brought no improvement, as San Marino suffered a comprehensive 4-0 defeat. However, their most recent match against Albania offered a small positive: Lorenzo Lazzari scored in a 2-1 away loss, finally ending the team's scoring drought in the competition.
Despite that improvement, defensive organization remains a serious concern. San Marino have conceded at least two goals in every Nations League match, struggling particularly against opponents who dominate possession and attack through the wide areas.
The hosts also face personnel problems. Defender Michele Cevoli has been excluded from the squad because of injury, while forward Nicolas Giacopetti is suspended. Marco Pasolini could replace Cevoli in central defence, with experienced striker Nicola Nanni potentially returning to the starting lineup.
San Marino will likely defend deep, attempting to reduce the space available to Belarus and create occasional counterattacking opportunities.
Belarus: Promotion ambitions supported by improving form
Belarus have recovered impressively from a disappointing start to the competition. Carlos Alós's team opened their Nations League campaign with a 2-0 defeat against Albania, but have since collected seven points from three matches.
A goalless draw away to Finland was followed by an emphatic 4-0 victory over San Marino. Belarus then secured another important result, defeating Finland 1-0 to strengthen their position in the promotion race.
After four rounds, the visitors have seven points and occupy second place in Group C1, two points behind Albania. Their defensive performances have been particularly encouraging, with three consecutive clean sheets.
The 4-0 victory in the reverse fixture highlighted Belarus's superiority in attacking movement, physical strength and finishing. Their ability to control possession and repeatedly create opportunities inside the penalty area proved too much for San Marino.
However, Alós must cope with two attacking absences. Artem Shumanskiy and German Barkovskiy are suspended, meaning Artem Kontsevoy and Vitaliy Lisakovich could receive opportunities in the starting lineup.
Despite these restrictions, Belarus possess enough attacking quality to dominate proceedings. With three points essential to their ambitions, the visitors have every reason to approach the encounter aggressively.
Probable lineups
- San Marino: Colombo; Fabbri, Pasolini, Rossi, Giocondi; Meloni, Della Balda, Capicchioni, Zannoni; Salicioni, Nanni.
- Belarus: Lapoukhov; Kalinin, Volkov, Gomanov, Pechenin; Bocherov, Selyava; Kovalev, Ebong, Kontsevoy; Lisakovich.
Match facts and head-to-head statistics
- San Marino have lost all four Nations League matches, conceding 16 goals.
- Belarus have collected seven points from their last three matches.
- The visitors have kept three consecutive clean sheets in the competition.
- Belarus won the reverse fixture 4-0 in October 2026.
- Belarus have won all three previous meetings with San Marino, scoring 11 goals without conceding.
- San Marino have conceded at least three goals in three of their four group matches.
Another difficult evening for the hosts? San Marino vs Belarus prediction
Belarus enter this encounter with a clear advantage in almost every department. Their recent results demonstrate growing confidence, while their defensive organization has improved significantly since the opening defeat against Albania.
San Marino's main weakness remains their inability to withstand sustained attacking pressure. Conceding 16 goals in four matches illustrates how frequently their defensive structure breaks down against opponents with superior technical and physical qualities.
The absence of two attacking players could slightly reduce Belarus's offensive options, but the visitors have already demonstrated that they can exploit San Marino's defensive weaknesses.
With promotion ambitions providing additional motivation, Belarus are unlikely to settle for simply protecting a narrow advantage. The visitors should create enough opportunities to threaten the hosts' goal repeatedly.
San Marino could make the contest more competitive than the reverse fixture, but their defensive record suggests another high-scoring encounter remains a realistic scenario.
