Can Athletic Bilbao Continue Their Strong Run? Athletic Bilbao vs Alaves Prediction | September 19, 2026
Athletic Bilbao will host Alaves at San Mames on September 19 in the seventh round of La Liga. The two Basque sides approach the derby in different form, with Athletic gradually recovering from a difficult start, while Alaves have collected 10 points despite losing their last two matches.
Match Preview
Athletic Bilbao have started to find their rhythm after losing their opening two league matches against Sevilla and Barcelona. The Basque side are now unbeaten in their last three games, recording two wins and a draw. They beat Celta and Atletico Madrid before drawing 1-1 with Elche in their latest match.
Athletic have collected seven points from five matches and currently sit ninth in the table. Their home record stands at one win, one draw and one defeat from three matches, although San Mames remains a difficult venue for visiting teams.
Their recent home meetings with Alaves have been closely contested. Athletic lost their previous home encounter with Alaves last season, ending a run of three consecutive victories in this fixture.
The main feature of this rivalry, however, has been the lack of goals. The last seven meetings between the sides in Bilbao ended with fewer than 2.5 goals, while only one of their last 12 encounters produced more than 2.5 goals.
Alaves made an impressive start to the season, although their recent position has been affected by two consecutive defeats. They lost to Racing Santander and Valencia after previously beating Getafe, Villarreal and Athletic and drawing with Rayo Vallecano.
Alaves have played one more match than their upcoming opponents and currently have 10 points, placing them sixth in the table. Their away record consists of one draw and one defeat from two matches.
The overall recent head-to-head record is relatively balanced. Each team has won two of the last five meetings, with one draw. Across the last 10 encounters, however, Athletic have the advantage with five wins, three draws and two defeats.
Head-to-Head
Recent meetings between Athletic Bilbao and Alaves have generally been tight and low-scoring. Athletic have won five of the last 10 encounters, while 12 of the last 13 meetings ended with under 2.5 goals.
The trend has been even stronger in Bilbao, where the last seven meetings all finished with fewer than 2.5 goals. This makes the historical pattern at San Mames particularly relevant ahead of the latest derby.
Key Trends
- Athletic Bilbao are unbeaten in their last 3 matches.
- Athletic Bilbao have won 5 of the last 10 meetings with Alaves.
- Alaves have lost their last 2 matches.
- 7 consecutive Athletic-Alaves meetings in Bilbao ended with under 2.5 goals.
- 12 of the last 13 head-to-head meetings ended with under 2.5 goals.
Prediction
Athletic Bilbao have the advantage of playing at San Mames and arrive in better recent form after going unbeaten in their last three matches. Alaves, meanwhile, remain near the top of the table despite their two latest defeats. The biggest factor in this matchup is the consistent scoring pattern between the two teams. Their meetings have regularly produced tight games, with the last seven in Bilbao staying below three total goals. Even across the wider head-to-head record, only one of the last 13 encounters produced more than 2.5 goals. Athletic should have enough control at home to avoid an open game, while Alaves are unlikely to approach the derby with an overly aggressive style after their recent setbacks. With both sides closely matched and the historical scoring numbers so clear, another low-scoring encounter looks likely. Recommended Bet: Under 3 Total Goals.
