Can Atalanta deliver a convincing victory? Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty prediction – 05.11.2026
On Thursday, November 5, 2026, Atalanta will host Kairat Almaty at the New Balance Arena in Bergamo in the third round of the UEFA Conference League league phase. Kick-off is scheduled for 18:45 Central European Time. The Italians have collected three points from their opening two matches, while the Kazakh visitors have just one. Despite Atalanta's disappointing domestic form, the difference in individual quality between the teams makes the hosts overwhelming favorites.
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Atalanta: A perfect opportunity to respond to recent disappointments
Atalanta enter this European fixture in disappointing form. Maurizio Sarri's side sit 13th in Serie A with just 11 points from ten matches, having recorded three victories, two draws and five defeats. Their defensive record is particularly concerning, with 20 goals conceded in ten league games.
Their recent results have done little to improve the atmosphere in Bergamo. Atalanta suffered a humiliating 3-0 home defeat against Parma on November 2, following a 2-2 draw with Fiorentina and a remarkable 4-4 encounter against Frosinone. Including defeats against Ajax and AC Milan, the Bergamo side have conceded 14 goals across their last five competitive matches without recording a victory.
However, their attacking potential remains considerable, particularly against opponents of significantly lower European standing. Atalanta opened their Conference League campaign with a convincing 3-1 victory over Pafos, demonstrating that they can still dominate less experienced opposition. They also defeated Venezia 3-1 in Serie A in October.
Sarri's biggest concern remains the extensive injury list. Gianluca Gaetano, Thomas Kristensen, Raoul Bellanova, Odilon Kossounou and Isak Hien are among the players undergoing treatment or rehabilitation. Giacomo Raspadori, Sead Kolašinac and Franck Kessié have been working individually.
There is some positive news, however. Gianluca Scamacca returned to full team training on November 3 and could provide an additional attacking option. Meanwhile, Charles De Ketelaere, Nikola Krstović, Nicola Zalewski and Eljif Elmas give Atalanta sufficient creativity and firepower to overwhelm a vulnerable defensive unit.
Playing at home against one of the Conference League's weakest-performing teams presents an excellent opportunity for Atalanta to restore confidence with a convincing result.
Kairat Almaty: Defensive weaknesses and a change of manager
Kairat arrive in Italy after finishing the 2026 Kazakhstan Premier League season in second place with 65 points, three behind champions Ordabasy. Although the Kazakh side remained competitive domestically, their European performances have exposed a considerable gap in quality.
They collected just one point from their opening two Conference League matches, drawing 1-1 away to Riga before suffering a crushing 5-1 home defeat against Panathinaikos.
That defeat highlighted Kairat's biggest problem: their defensive structure struggles against teams capable of moving the ball quickly and exploiting spaces between the lines. Six goals conceded in two European fixtures underline the difficulties awaiting the visitors in Bergamo.
The situation has become even more complicated following a managerial change. Rafael Urazbakhtin resigned on October 26 after Kairat lost their chance to defend the domestic league title. Zhora Arutyunyan, previously in charge of the club's youth structure, was appointed interim head coach.
Under Arutyunyan, Kairat drew 1-1 with Altai in their final domestic league fixture. The new manager now faces the difficult task of preparing his team for an away encounter against a Serie A opponent with substantially greater individual quality.
Kairat do possess attacking threats. Marc Gual finished the domestic season with 12 league goals, while Edmilson scored ten. Jaakko Oksanen and Gustavo Mendonça can also contribute in midfield.
Nevertheless, the visitors' main challenge will be defensive. Their performance against Panathinaikos demonstrated that they can collapse when opponents sustain pressure, and Atalanta have the players to exploit precisely these weaknesses.
Possible lineups
- Atalanta: Carnesecchi; Zappacosta, Scalvini, Obrić, Bernasconi; Éderson, Pašalić; Elmas, De Ketelaere, Zalewski; Krstović.
- Kairat Almaty: Anarbekov; Tapalov, Martynovich, Shirobokov, Mata; Mendonça, Oksanen; Mrynskiy, Gual, Tuyakbayev; Edmilson.
Match facts and key trends
- Atalanta have failed to win their last five competitive matches, conceding 14 goals.
- Atalanta defeated both Pafos and Venezia 3-1 at home in October.
- Atalanta scored three goals in their opening Conference League home match.
- Kairat have conceded six goals in their first two Conference League matches.
- Kairat suffered a 5-1 home defeat against Panathinaikos in their previous European fixture.
- This will be the first competitive meeting between Atalanta and Kairat Almaty.
Prediction: Atalanta's attacking superiority should produce a comfortable victory
Atalanta's poor recent form is certainly a concern, especially given their defensive problems and injury situation. Nevertheless, this fixture represents a fundamentally different challenge from facing established Serie A opponents.
The quality gap between the teams is significant. Sarri's side possess superior individual players in virtually every department, and their attacking options should be capable of creating numerous opportunities against Kairat's vulnerable defense.
The Kazakh visitors conceded five goals against Panathinaikos, showing how quickly their defensive organization can deteriorate against stronger opponents. Their recent coaching change also adds uncertainty, particularly with Arutyunyan having had limited time to implement his ideas.
Atalanta, meanwhile, have every reason to approach this encounter aggressively. After their embarrassing defeat to Parma, a narrow victory would hardly erase the disappointment. The hosts need a convincing performance, and the quality of the opposition provides an ideal opportunity to produce one.
De Ketelaere's creativity, Krstović's movement and the attacking contributions of Zalewski and Elmas should help Atalanta create sustained pressure. Although Kairat may threaten on the counterattack, the visitors are unlikely to withstand 90 minutes of Italian attacking superiority.
A victory by two or more goals looks realistic, with a 3-0 or 4-1 result among the possible outcomes. Atalanta should control the encounter and have enough attacking quality to secure a comfortable victory.
Prediction: Atalanta Asian handicap (-1.75).
