Burgos vs Almeria prediction: match preview and lineups
On Saturday, May 9, 2026, El Plantío Stadium in Burgos will host the 39th round clash of La Liga 2. Burgos welcomes Almeria in a showdown that could prove decisive for both sides as the season nears its climax: the hosts are desperately clinging to the playoff zone, while the visitors are fighting to stay in the top two and secure direct promotion to La Liga.
Match preview
Under the guidance of Luis Miguel Ramis, Burgos are enjoying one of their best campaigns in recent history. The team sits seventh, just a single point away from the coveted top six. As usual, Burgos has turned their home ground into a fortress—in 2026, they've conceded fewer goals at home than any other team in the league. With just one defeat in their last ten matches, they're fighting tooth and nail for a playoff spot. The main hope for the fans is Curro, who not only scores himself but is also the team's top assist provider this season. The defense, marshaled by Aitor Cordoba, faces a stern test as Almeria boast the most potent attack in the division.
Almeria currently occupy second place in the league, but any slip-up could see them drop to third. The team has displayed phenomenal attacking form in 2026: Sergio Arribas is enjoying a standout season, already surpassing the 20-goal mark. In the previous round, Almeria confidently dispatched Mirandes, showing they are mentally primed for a return to the top flight. The only concern for the coaching staff is the condition of Leo Baptistao, who picked up a minor knock but is expected to recover in time for Saturday.
Tactically, Burgos will likely sit deep, keeping compact lines and relying on swift transitions. Almeria, on the other hand, will look to dominate possession and methodically break down the home defense through Arribas’ creativity and Embarba’s dangerous deliveries.
It’s a battle of the league’s best home defense against its most lethal attack. Burgos are in dire need of points to stay in the playoff race, but Almeria look like a well-oiled machine that’s incredibly hard to stop right now. El Plantío is always a tough venue for visitors, but Almeria’s quality, especially Arribas, may prove decisive.
Probable lineups
Burgos: Cantero — Arroyo, Cordoba, Sierra, Miguel — Sancris, Atienza, Appin, Cordoba — Curro, Nino
Almeria: Fernandez — Pozo, Chumi, Radovanovic, Munoz — Baba, Lopy — Embarba, Arribas, Melamed — Baptistao
Match facts and head-to-head
- In the last five meetings, Almeria have won three times, with Burgos winning twice
- Burgos have lost just once in their last ten matches, picking up five wins and four draws
- Almeria have won seven out of their last ten matches, losing three
Prediction
I expect an open match with plenty of chances and quality shots on goal. My prediction: total goals over (2) at 1.53
