Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli prediction, head-to-head and probable lineups - 17 January 2026
One of the fixtures of the 18th round of the German championship will take place on Saturday at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund, where the local team Borussia will host St. Pauli. I suggest a bet on the outcome of this clash with a strong chance of success.
Match preview
Borussia quickly regained their balance after drawing with Eintracht by thrashing Werder, further cementing their hold on second place. However, Bayern continues to dominate the title race, making every match not just a chance to consolidate their position but also an opportunity to close the gap at the top. With an away trip to Tottenham in the Champions League looming, squad rotation against St. Pauli seems more than reasonable.
Girassi's inclusion in the starting lineup looks almost inevitable - his freshness and recent goal suggest he could extend his scoring streak. Niko Kovac will likely avoid overloading his key players, especially ahead of such a crucial European fixture. Still, this match against St. Pauli is also a chance for revenge after unexpectedly dropping points in the first round.
St. Pauli have found themselves back in the relegation zone, despite recently showing signs of life by finishing December unbeaten. The new year started with a setback against Wolfsburg, and the postponed fixture with Leipzig has only made their league situation more precarious - Blessin's side now trail the safety of 15th place by two points. Facing one of the league's frontrunners is not just a challenge, but also a chance to end their poor run.
The "Pirates" haven't won away since August, making their task even more daunting. The team regularly loses on the road, but heavy defeats are rare - even against top sides, Pauli tend to stay in the fight until the final whistle. Perhaps that resilience will give them a chance here - to keep the score respectable, especially if the hosts play with one eye on their Champions League commitments.
Probable lineups
- Borussia Dortmund: Kobel, Schlotterbeck, Anton, Can, Svensson, Nmecha, Bellingham, Couto, Adeyemi, Bayer, Girassi
- St. Pauli: Vasilj, Smith, Finn, Mets, Sands, Fujita, Pyrka, Oppi, Irvine, Kaars, Pereira Lage
Match facts and head-to-head
- Both teams have scored in five of their last six meetings.
- St. Pauli have avoided losing to Borussia by more than one goal in five of their last six encounters.
- In the first half of the season, St. Pauli came back from 1-3 down to steal points from Dortmund.
Prediction
Borussia will be eager to get revenge while also managing their squad ahead of the Tottenham clash in the Champions League. The hosts have enough depth to rotate and still control the game. St. Pauli are capable of putting up a fight, as they've shown before, but it's unlikely they'll withstand the pressure for the full ninety minutes. Most likely, the Black and Yellows will secure a routine win without unnecessary drama, but it won't be a rout.
