Benfica vs Sporting prediction, H2H and probable line-ups – December 5, 2025
The marquee clash of the Portuguese league's 13th round will take place this Friday at Lisbon's Estádio da Luz, where Benfica host their fierce rivals Sporting. Here's our prediction for this high-stakes Lisbon derby, with a strong chance of success.
Match preview
Benfica approach the derby riding a wave of three straight wins across all competitions, which gives them a confidence boost ahead of this home showdown. Earlier in the season, the Eagles already got the better of Sporting in the Super Cup, so they'll be eager to reaffirm their dominance in the league as well.
However, despite their overall positive momentum, Benfica have struggled for consistency in the Primeira Liga, especially at home – just three wins in six matches at their own ground. Dropped points against lower-ranked teams and frequent draws have been the main reasons for their current third place and gap behind the leaders. A victory over their direct rival could prove a turning point in the title race.
Sporting are in red-hot form, coming into this match with four consecutive wins, including a 4-0 demolition of Estrela Amadora. They lead the league with 31 points and boast a perfect away record in the Primeira – six wins from six on the road.
Yet, Sporting have struggled in big games against top opposition this season – suffering a defeat to Porto and drawing with Braga. Additionally, they haven't managed to win at Estádio da Luz since 2021, which could weigh psychologically in this crucial derby.
Probable line-ups
- Benfica: Trubin, Dahl, Otamendi, A Silva, Dedic, Rios, Barrenechea, Aursnes, Sudakov, Schjelderup, Pavlidis
- Sporting: Silva, Araujo, Inacio, Quaresma, Fresneda, Morita, Hjulmand, Catamo, Trincao, Goncalves, Suarez
Match facts and head-to-head:
- The last three of four meetings between these sides at this stadium have ended in a draw
- Sporting have won all six of their away league matches this season
- Benfica have lost just one match in the current Primeira campaign
Prediction
Both teams are in excellent form, setting the stage for a tense and evenly-matched showdown. Benfica will be highly motivated to close the gap at the top, but Sporting arrive with outstanding away form and a determination to cement their place at the summit. Given both teams' form and playing styles, a draw appears the most probable outcome. For betting purposes, we recommend "Benfica double chance" at odds of 1.52.
