Benfica vs Real Madrid: prediction, H2H and probable lineups — February 17, 2026
On Tuesday, February 17, Lisbon will become the epicenter of world football. At Estádio da Luz, Benfica will host Real Madrid in the first leg of the Champions League playoff round. Read on for an in-depth look at both teams' form and our match prediction.
Match preview
Under the guidance of José Mourinho, Benfica pulled off the biggest shock of the 2026 group stage. Just a month ago, in the final round of the league, the Portuguese side defeated Real 4-2, with goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin scoring a dramatic header in the 98th minute to send his team into the playoffs. Now, the "Eagles" are riding a wave of emotion, sitting third in the Portuguese championship after a recent 2-1 win over Santa Clara, accumulating 52 points. The midfield partnership, orchestrated by Georgiy Sudakov, and the attacking firepower of Vangelis Pavlidis make the Lisbon outfit a truly dangerous opponent. However, Mourinho faces significant absences: Fredrik Aursnes and Alexander Bah are both likely to miss the clash due to injuries.
Real Madrid arrives in Lisbon with mixed feelings. On one hand, they are top of La Liga after thrashing Real Sociedad 4-1. On the other, January's debacle at this very stadium is still fresh in their minds. The Madrid side are hungry for revenge, but an injury crisis in defense and midfield is tying the hands of coach Álvaro Arbeloa. The biggest blow is the absence of Jude Bellingham, sidelined with a hamstring injury. Rodrigo and Raúl Asensio will also miss out due to suspensions. All hopes rest on the dynamic duo of Vinicius and Mbappé, as well as the return of Trent Alexander-Arnold, who is expected to bring creativity down the flank.
Tactically, expect a classic "chess match" from Mourinho. Benfica will likely cede possession, setting up a compact block and banking on the pace of Gianluca Prestianni and the intelligence of Sudakov. Real will look to dominate and press, aiming to settle the tie in the first leg and avoid any drama back in Madrid. The home advantage could once again play in Benfica's favor, but Real's star-studded squad remains formidable, even with a lengthy injury list.
Probable lineups
Benfica: Trubin; Dedic, Araujo, Otamendi, Dahl; Barreiro, Barrenechea; Prestianni, Sudakov, Schjelderup; Pavlidis
Real: Courtois; Carreras, Huijsen, Rudiger, Alexander-Arnold; Camavinga, Tchouameni, Valverde; Vinicius, Mbappe, Guler
Match facts and head-to-head
- Benfica have won both previous meetings: 5-2 and 4-2
- Benfica have won four of their last five matches, conceding at least one goal in three of them
- Real have won six of their last seven games, with their only defeat coming against Benfica
Prediction
Both teams know how to attack, have been scoring freely in recent fixtures, and are eager to clash again on the Champions League stage. Expect a hard-fought battle and plenty of goals. My prediction: total over 2.5 goals at 1.6
