Bayern vs Stuttgart: prediction, H2H and probable lineups — 23.05.2026
One of the weekend’s marquee showdowns unfolds Saturday in Berlin, as Bayern Munich face off against Stuttgart at the Olympiastadion in the DFB-Pokal final. I’m backing a high-scoring outcome in this southern derby - after all, the trophy at stake raises the stakes even further, despite Bayern’s clear status as favorites.
Match preview
Bayern approach the final after a tricky spring run, during which Vincent Kompany’s team, for the first time this season, went three games without a win. The Bavarians couldn’t overcome PSG in the Champions League, but regained their confidence in the Bundesliga with a 1-0 win over Wolfsburg and a commanding 5-1 demolition of Köln ahead of the decisive match.
For Bayern, this final is not just a chance to lift the DFB-Pokal for the first time in six years, but also an opportunity to give their season true championship weight. A Bundesliga title is seen as a duty in Munich, so without the golden double, even Kompany’s vibrant football may leave a sense of something missing. The main squad question is around Manuel Neuer: the veteran has missed significant training time due to a muscle injury, so Jonas Urbig could well start between the posts.
Stuttgart head to Berlin as the defending champions and a team that knows how to dig deep, even when their results aren’t entirely convincing. The Swabians have just two wins in their last six matches, but Sebastian Hoeneß’s side rarely collapse and know how to deliver on big nights - just look at their 3-1 triumph over Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League qualification race.
Stuttgart’s main advantage heading into the final is an almost perfect squad situation and their coach’s tactical flexibility. Hoeneß may once again opt for three central defenders, aiming to close the spaces between the lines and prevent Bayern from gaining momentum through Musiala, Olise, and Kane. Still, five consecutive head-to-head defeats to Bayern loom large psychologically, even if the narrow 2-1 Supercup loss showed that with the right structure, Stuttgart can keep pace.
Probable lineups
- Bayern: Urbig, Laimer, Tah, Upamecano, Stanisic, Pavlovic, Kimmich, Dias, Musiala, Olise, Kane.
- Stuttgart: Nübel, Hendricks, Chabot, Mittelstädt, Stiller, Karazor, Leweling, Führich, El-Hannous, Undav, Demirović.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Seven of the last ten meetings between these teams have featured over three goals.
- Bayern have not taken more than 7 corners in regular time in 12 of their last 13 Bundesliga and German Supercup clashes with Stuttgart.
- In four of the last five matches against Stuttgart, Bayern have scored at least three goals.
- Bayern have won in regular time in 7 of their last 8 Bundesliga and Supercup head-to-heads against Stuttgart.
Prediction
This final sets the perfect stage for attacking football: Bayern are obliged to dictate the play, but their defense has regularly offered opponents chances throughout the season. The Munich side have more individual quality and a higher attacking ceiling, but the pressure of the trophy and the possible absence of Neuer make their favorite’s status less than comfortable.
Stuttgart shouldn’t just sit back - Hoeneß’s tactical flexibility will let them adapt to Bayern and look for space behind the wide defenders. I expect goals on both sides and a strong possibility that 90 minutes won’t be enough to decide the winner.
