Barcelona vs Real prediction, H2H and probable lineups - January 11, 2026

Barcelona enter this high-stakes match in sensational form. The Catalans are riding a nine-game winning streak, netting 26 goals—almost three per game—while conceding only six. Notably, half of those goals conceded came in a single La Liga match against Betis. Barcelona’s last defeat dates back to late November against Chelsea, after which the team has displayed consistent, confident football.

Their path to the Spanish Super Cup final has been as smooth as it gets. In the semifinals, Barcelona dispatched Athletic Bilbao with ease, settling the outcome in the first half with a 4-0 lead, and adding another goal after the break.

This match could see Lamine Yamal in the starting lineup, as confirmed by head coach Hansi Flick. This is a major boost for the team, as the young winger has emerged as a key figure for Barcelona. However, the Catalans are still dealing with some personnel issues. Ronald Araújo, Andreas Christensen, Marc-André ter Stegen (who has suffered another injury), and Gavi remain unavailable. That said, the team has been playing without these stars for some time, so their absence shouldn’t be critical for Flick, especially given the squad’s depth and quality replacements.

Real Madrid also arrive in good form, but their recent run is less convincing. Los Blancos have won their last five matches, but prior to that suffered two painful defeats—against Celta in La Liga and Manchester City in the Champions League. At that point, Xabi Alonso’s future at the helm was under scrutiny, but he managed to steady the ship and prove he can handle the pressure of the hot seat.

In the Spanish Super Cup semifinals, Real faced a tougher challenge than Barcelona—cross-town rivals Atlético Madrid. Their 2-1 win was hard-fought: in the second half, Los Blancos focused on protecting their lead and held firm. However, the team expended more energy than Barcelona and will have one day less to recover.

The final’s intrigue could be heightened by the possible return of Kylian Mbappé, who missed the last two matches. Even if the French superstar features, he’s unlikely to be at peak fitness, but his presence in the starting eleven could still have a major impact. Real’s defensive ranks remain depleted, with Éder Militão and Trent Alexander-Arnold still sidelined. Brahim Díaz is away at the Africa Cup of Nations and will not be available, while center-back Dean Huijsen is a doubt for this clash.