Balkan test before America: prediction for Croatia vs Slovenia - 07.06.2026
One of the weekend’s international friendlies will take place at the “City Stadium” in Varaždin, where Zlatko Dalić’s side will host their neighbors from Slovenia. For Croatia, this is a full dress rehearsal ahead of their World Cup journey, while for Slovenia it’s a chance to test Boštjan Cesar’s new project against an opponent who, historically, has almost always found the right approach to them.
Croatia: Dalić’s team testing new armor
Croatia cruised through World Cup qualifying, winning seven of eight matches, and now uses friendlies as a laboratory ahead of the tournament in America. In 2026, the team already defeated Colombia 2-1, then received tough but valuable lessons from Brazil (1-3) and Belgium (0-2).
Zlatko Dalić is reshaping the traditional Croatian structure into a system with three central defenders, and the clash with Slovenia looks like the perfect opportunity to fine-tune the details. Some rotation is expected after the Belgium game: Marin Pongračić, Andrej Kramarić, Marko Pašalić, and Igor Matanović could all start, bringing fresh energy to the attacking group.
Slovenia: new coach, same old problems without Šeško
After a failed World Cup qualifying campaign, Slovenia changed their coach, but under Boštjan Cesar they have yet to look like a team that has truly turned the page. In three friendlies, they suffered a 0-1 defeat to Hungary, claimed a 3-2 win over Montenegro, and battled to a hard-fought 1-1 draw with Cyprus - a match where they equalized only after the opposition went down to ten men.
The main personnel headache for the visitors is the absence of Benjamin Šeško, as well as several key midfielders from the main rotation: Timi Elšnik, Toma Horvat, and Petar Stojanović. Without these players, Slovenia finds it harder to keep possession under pressure, though they remain a tricky opponent in friendlies: over the last eight years, they have lost just one such match.
Match facts and head-to-head record
- Croatia has lost to Slovenia only once in 12 meetings since the breakup of Yugoslavia, winning seven and drawing four.
- In three matches in 2026, Croatia beat Colombia but then lost to Brazil and Belgium, testing themselves against top-tier opposition.
- Slovenia has won only one of their last nine matches, and in their recent draw with Cyprus, they salvaged a point after the opponents were reduced to ten men.
Prediction
Croatia approaches this fixture not as a relaxed sparring session, but with a clear purpose - to cement their new three-at-the-back system and regain confidence after defeats to Brazil and Belgium. Compared to a Slovenia side still searching for identity under a new manager, the hosts look more cohesive and in control.
Slovenia knows how to slow the tempo and rarely falls apart in friendlies, so a high-scoring game is unlikely. But without Šeško and a group of key midfielders, the visitors will struggle to consistently play out from Croatia’s pressure and create chances against Livaković’s goal. The optimal choice is a Croatia win with moderate scoring.
