Atletico vs Mallorca prediction, head-to-head and probable lineups - 25 January 2026
One of the key fixtures of La Liga's 21st round will take place on Sunday at the Civitas Metropolitano in Madrid, where the local giants Atletico welcome Mallorca. I’m backing a result in this clash that favors the hosts, given their formidable home form and the visitors’ shaky defensive displays.
Match preview
The Colchoneros have endured a tough spell at the start of the year – just two wins in five matches, including a draw against Galatasaray in the Champions League. Even the Supercopa defeat to Real was, in terms of quality, better than some of their victories. Diego Simeone’s side relies heavily on crosses and aerial duels in attack, signaling a lack of creativity – especially with Julian Alvarez’s dip in form, as he’s now gone seven matches without scoring.
However, Atletico transform at home. At the Civitas Metropolitano, they’ve lost just once all season and have racked up 12 wins in 13 matches across all competitions. Simeone’s rotation policy helps them cope with a hectic schedule – Koke is often rested, Griezmann is used situationally, and Sorloth has become a crucial attacking weapon. Historically, Atletico have dominated Mallorca in Madrid, especially on their own turf.
Last round, Jagoba Arrasate’s side pulled off a surprise win against Athletic in Bilbao, despite a lack of flair – the hero was Vedat Muriqi, who netted a hat-trick. That victory was their first after a three-match winless streak, which included defeats to Girona and Rayo Vallecano, as well as a draw with Valencia. Despite the result, Mallorca continue to allow far too many chances at their own end – over the last five rounds, opponents have amassed nearly 10 expected goals (xG) against them.
The team is also in turmoil off the pitch – Dani Rodriguez left the club after a bust-up with the coach, and Mascarell is unhappy with his role and could depart in the summer. Defensive problems are not only organizational but also personnel-related – Raillo has only just returned from injury and is unlikely to be at full fitness. All of this leaves the visitors vulnerable ahead of a trip to one of La Liga's most dominant home sides.
Probable lineups
- Atletico: Oblak, Ruggeri, Gantzko, Pubill, Llorente, Baena, Barrios, Cardoso, Simeone, Sorloth, Alvarez
- Mallorca: Roman, Maffeo, Valjent, Raillo, Mojica, Sanchez, Costa, Mascarell, Darder, Muriqi, Virgili
Match facts and head-to-head
- Five of the last six meetings between these sides have produced fewer than three goals.
- Atletico have won 12 of their 13 home matches across all competitions this season.
- Mallorca have conceded an average of 14 shots per game over their last five league outings.
Prediction
Despite their battling win in Bilbao, Mallorca still don’t look like a team capable of consistently taking points off the league’s elite. Defensive frailty, inconsistent attacking play, and internal issues could all be exposed against a disciplined Atletico. The Madrid side are almost flawless at home, and it’s hard to see them letting victory slip away here.
