Atletico vs Alaves prediction, head-to-head and probable lineups - 18 January 2026
One of the fixtures of La Liga's Matchday 20 in the 2025/26 season will take place on Sunday at the Civitas Metropolitano in Madrid, where the local side Atletico will host Alaves. Here’s my betting tip based on the current form of both teams and Alaves’ struggles on the road.
- See also: Real Sociedad vs Barcelona prediction, head-to-head and probable lineups - 18 January 2026
Match preview
Diego Simeone’s team is approaching the spring stretch of the season with a focus on stability and results. In La Liga, the “Colchoneros” have picked up 7 points from their last three matches and are firmly holding onto a Champions League spot, without losing momentum in either the Copa del Rey or the Champions League. At home, Atletico remain impenetrable — 11 straight wins at their own stadium show that this team knows how to pile on the pressure and break down their opponents, even if the opening stages don’t go their way.
January has been a time of squad trimming for the “Colchoneros”: Galan, Martin, Gallagher, and Raspadori have all departed, reducing the wage bill but also thinning squad depth. This opens the door for second-string players — Almada and Cardoso are likely to get their chance to shine. Rotation will be minimal but targeted, aiming to keep the squad fresh for tougher upcoming opponents.
Luis Garcia Plaza’s side arrives in the capital carrying a worrying burden — just two points above the relegation zone, one win in their last five La Liga matches, and a poor run away from home. A Copa del Rey win over Rayo Vallecano eased the pressure a bit, but league play demands a different level of consistency and confidence. For now, Alaves are simply trying to stay afloat, maintaining their structure and compactness on the pitch.
Alaves are also having squad issues: Benavidez is back from suspension, but Boye remains doubtful, while Maras and Garces are definitely out. In this scenario, Eduardo Coudet will rely on proven performers, discipline, and caution, especially in the first half. However, given their dreadful away record (just one win since September) and a limited squad, even a draw in Madrid seems a tall order.
Probable lineups
- Atletico: Oblak, Gantzko, Pubill, Ruggeri, Llorente, Cardoso, Barrios, Baena, Simeone, Almada, Sorloth
- Alaves: Sivera, Tenaglia, Pacheco, Castro, Parada, Ibanez, Blanco, Vicente, Suarez, Alena, Martinez
Match facts and head-to-head
- Atletico have won 11 consecutive home matches in all competitions.
- Both teams have scored in 4 of the last 6 head-to-head meetings.
- Alaves have not won an away league match since September 2025.
Prediction
Atletico look more stable, confident, and deeper both in terms of squad and tactical structure. At home, Simeone’s men play with composure and know how to get the result, even in tight contests. Alaves, meanwhile, have chronic away problems, a suboptimal squad, and very few options off the bench. Even with the hosts’ usual caution, that should be enough for another home victory.
