Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction, H2H and probable lineups - January 8, 2026
One of the semifinals of the 2025/26 Spanish Super Cup will take place on Thursday at King Saud University Stadium in Riyadh, where Atletico Madrid will clash with their eternal rivals, Real Madrid. This derby promises to be the highlight of the tournament and will decide who earns a spot in the final. I'm backing a bet on goals in this match, with excellent chances of success.
Match preview
Before the Christmas break, Atletico were in sparkling form, winning four matches in a row. However, after the break, the team looked less focused—a 1-1 draw with Real Sociedad was a worrying sign. Alvarez struggled to find his rhythm due to personal circumstances, and Pablo Barrios picked up an injury, weakening the midfield.
Nevertheless, the "Colchoneros" always come out fired up for the derby. In the last ten head-to-head meetings with Real, Atletico have claimed five victories, including a humiliating 5-2 defeat of Los Blancos back in September. Sorloth has hit his stride and could once again be a key factor.
Real, meanwhile, delivered a stellar performance against Betis, winning 5-1. The standout was young striker Garcia, who netted a hat-trick in Mbappe's absence. The return of aggressive pressing and a more structured attacking approach showed that Alonso's side can dominate once again.
However, defensively Real remain vulnerable: they concede on average more than 12 shots per game, and only Courtois' brilliance is keeping the goals out. In a derby, where Atletico are always aggressive and strong in physical battles, this could prove decisive.
Probable lineups
- Atletico Madrid: Oblak; Ganczko, Le Normand, Pubill; Llorente, Baena, Cardoso, Koke, Simeone; Alvarez, Sorloth
- Real Madrid: Courtois; Valverde, Rudiger, Asensio, Carreras; Camavinga, Tchouameni; Rodrygo, Bellingham, Junior; Garcia
Match facts and head-to-head
- Both teams have scored in five of the last six matches between Atletico and Real.
- Atletico scored in the first half in four of the last six games against Real.
- Atletico have lost only two of the last ten Madrid derbies across all competitions.
Prediction
The derby in Riyadh promises to be heated and emotional. Given Atletico's ability to rise to the occasion and Real's current defensive issues, expect a tense match with chances at both ends. A draw in regular time is likely, with a place in the final possibly decided by a penalty shootout.
