Athletic vs Real Madrid prediction, H2H and probable lineups – December 3, 2025
One of the headline clashes of La Liga's matchday 19 will take place on Wednesday at San Mamés in Bilbao, where Athletic will host Real Madrid. Here’s a bet on this intriguing encounter with a solid chance of success.
Match preview
The Basques continue to teeter between stability and slumps, alternating confident victories with frustrating defeats. Despite a recent win over Levante, it was only their third victory in the last 11 rounds, and the gap to the European spots remains significant. Problems converting chances and an inconsistent defense are preventing Ernesto Valverde’s side from picking up points regularly.
At home, Athletic tend to play cautiously: they rarely score more than one goal and often see their matches turn into low-scoring affairs. The run of all-or-nothing games continues — over their last five La Liga fixtures, the Basques have either won or lost. Still, facing a top club will demand maximum concentration, especially given their squad absences.
Madrid slowed down in November, drawing three consecutive La Liga matches and losing their spot at the top of the table. Nevertheless, the team remains consistent, going unbeaten in seven straight league games. Real still boasts one of the league’s most potent attacks and ranks among the top three for the fewest goals conceded.
On the road, Los Blancos play more conservatively but almost always find the net — scoring in 29 of their last 30 away league games. Against Athletic, Madrid traditionally get results — over their last 20 La Liga meetings, Real have lost only once. That’s a significant psychological advantage ahead of another trip to Bilbao.
Probable lineups
- Athletic: Simon, Berchiche, Paredes, Vivian, Lekue, Jaureguizar, Rego, Navarro, Williams, Berenguer, Guruzeta
- Real Madrid: Courtois, Alexander-Arnold, Militao, Rudiger, Garcia, Valverde, Tchouameni, Bellingham, Güler, Vinicius, Mbappe
Match facts and head-to-head
- Real are unbeaten against Athletic in La Liga for 12 consecutive matches
- In 18 of the last 20 league meetings between these teams, there were no more than three goals scored
- Athletic have scored no more than one goal in most of their home games this season
Prediction
Although Real are going through a slight dip in results, the team’s performance level remains high and they rarely slip up in away fixtures like this. Given Athletic’s defensive discipline at home and the frequent low-scoring outcomes in their head-to-heads, a tight contest is expected. Considering the visitors' motivation and superior quality, the best bet looks to be: 'Real Madrid not to lose and under 3.5 goals' at odds of 1.84.
