Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad: prediction, head-to-head and probable line-ups – 11 February 2026
One of the most fiercely contested fixtures of the Spanish season is set for Wednesday at San Mamés in Bilbao, where Athletic will host Real Sociedad in the first leg of the Copa del Rey semi-final. A Basque derby with a ticket to the final at stake—this is a rare occasion where the tournament's prestige only heightens the already sky-high tension of this rivalry. Here’s a bet on the outcome of this clash with strong prospects for success.
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Match preview
Ernesto Valverde’s side approaches the semi-final on a high after an emphatic 4-2 win over Levante in La Liga. Previously, Athletic edged past Valencia in dramatic fashion in the Copa quarter-finals, with Iñaki Williams scoring the decisive goal deep into injury time. The Basques’ cup journey this season has been nothing short of nerve-wracking and heroic – with extra time battles and narrow victories.
In La Liga, however, the “Lions” remain in a precarious position: just 10th in the table and only six points clear of the relegation zone. The main concern is their defense, which hasn’t kept a clean sheet in 11 consecutive matches. Nevertheless, the Copa del Rey is a special competition for Athletic, and at San Mamés, the team traditionally raises its game, especially on big occasions.
Real Sociedad comes into the derby as the more stable outfit. Pellegrino Matarazzo’s men are unbeaten in their last 10 matches across all competitions and look confident both in the league and the cup. Their latest 3-1 win over Elche only confirmed the squad’s excellent form.
La Real’s cup run has been equally impressive: a 3-2 victory over Alavés and a penalty shootout triumph against Osasuna showcased their character and mental resilience. In recent head-to-head clashes with Athletic, they’ve looked competitive, and a recent 1-1 draw – where they lost the lead only at the death – left a sense of unfinished business.
Probable line-ups
- Athletic Bilbao: Simón, Gorosabel, Paredes, Laporte, Lekue, Ruiz de Galarreta, Jauregizar, Serrano, Guruzeta, Nico Williams, Iñaki Williams.
- Real Sociedad: Remiro, Gómez, Ćaleta-Car, Zubeldia, Odriozola, Turrientes, Soler, Gorrochategui, Marín, Oyarzabal, Guedes.
Match facts and head-to-head
- In the last five Basque derbies, Athletic has claimed two wins, Real Sociedad one, with two matches ending in draws.
- The most recent meeting ended 1-1, with Athletic equalizing in the 88th minute.
- Athletic is the second most decorated club in Copa del Rey history, having lifted the trophy 24 times.
Prediction
The first leg of this semi-final promises to be physical, tactically cautious, and intensely emotional. Real Sociedad has shown more stability over the season, but the San Mamés factor and Athletic’s cup pedigree could tip the balance in favor of the hosts. In a derby like this, it all comes down to moments, and a narrow home advantage ahead of the return fixture looks the most logical outcome.
