Athletic Bilbao vs Elche: prediction, head-to-head and probable lineups – 20 February 2026
One of the fixtures of La Liga’s Matchday 25 will take place on Friday in Bilbao at San Mamés, where Athletic will host Elche. The Basques are still chasing a European spot, trailing by just four points, while the visitors are teetering on the edge of the relegation zone. I suggest considering a cautious bet with a scenario involving a minimal number of goals.
Match preview
Athletic are picking up points, but the questions about their style of play remain. In the previous round, the Basques narrowly edged out struggling Oviedo (2-1), trailing in terms of quality football and clinching the win thanks to a long-range strike from Auregisar and a penalty by Sancet. Before that, they beat Levante (4-2), another bottom-table side, but were knocked out of the Copa del Rey by Real Sociedad (0-1), fueling rumors of a possible coaching change.
Personnel issues are piling up: Auregisar will miss the match due to injury, Nico Williams is rehabbing a pubalgia, and Berenguer remains doubtful. The defense continues to struggle—Athletic have failed to keep a clean sheet in 13 consecutive matches across all competitions, conceding 26 goals in that span. Their last shutout was back in December in a cup tie against modest Ourense.
Elche ended a three-game losing streak in the previous round, drawing 0-0 with Osasuna – and by xG (2.33 to 0.81), the visitors actually deserved to win. Still, the overall situation is worrying: seven league matches without a win (four losses and three draws), just three points from a possible 21. The team has dropped to 16th place and sits only one point above the relegation zone.
There are some positives: top scorer Rafa Mir has recovered, central defender Affengruber is back from suspension, and Buba Sangaré is ready to get minutes. But their away record remains the worst in the league – with 11 away matches, not a single win, and seven defeats. Elche's last La Liga away victory dates back to May 2023, and their opponent then was, in fact, Athletic.
Probable lineups
- Athletic Bilbao: Simon, Gorosabel, Paredes, Laporte, Berchiche, Ruiz, Rego, Sancet, Navarro, Williams, Williams.
- Elche: Dituro, Affengruber, Chust, Bigas, Morente, Aguado, Valera, Cepeda, Febas, Rodriguez, Silva.
Match facts and head-to-head
- In four of the last six meetings between these teams, only one side found the net.
- Elche have not won any of their 11 away matches in this La Liga campaign.
- In the first round and over recent seasons, Elche have often caused problems for Athletic, avoiding defeat in four of the last six encounters.
Prediction
This match shapes up as a clash between the hosts’ stuttering attack and one of the league’s weakest away sides. Athletic are inconsistent and vulnerable at the back, but are traditionally aggressive and highly motivated at home in their pursuit of European qualification. Elche have improved their quality of play against Osasuna, but their chronic away troubles make it unlikely they’ll risk a bold approach. The most probable scenario is a cautious contest with a low goal tally.
