Athletic Bilbao vs Celta: prediction, H2H and probable lineups — 17.05.2026
One of the matchups of La Liga's 37th round will take place on Sunday at San Mamés in Bilbao, where the local side Athletic hosts Celta. Here’s my take and betting tip for this clash: the hosts are battling to stay in the European race, while the visitors are defending sixth place and a Europa League ticket.
Match preview
Athletic approaches the season’s finish line in an unusually anxious state: after last year’s Champions League breakthrough, the Basques now risk missing out on Europe altogether. The team lost three of their last four La Liga matches, including recent setbacks against Valencia and Espanyol, and now sit four points adrift of the European zone.
Adding to the tension is the imminent departure of Ernesto Valverde, who will be replaced by Edin Terzić this summer. San Mamés still provides Athletic with a pressure advantage, but the squad is hit by significant absences: Nico Williams, Dani Vivian, and Oihan Sancet are all out, with question marks lingering over Beñat Prados and Yuri Berchiche. In attack, Iñaki Williams is likely to return to the right flank, while Gorka Guruzeta should lead the line as the central striker.
Celta also head into this fixture reeling from a setback — a 2-3 defeat to Levante, despite Ferran Jutglà bagging a brace to take his season tally to nine league goals. Still, Claudio Giráldez’s side had previously beaten Elche and Atlético, so a single slip shouldn’t define their run: the visitors remain sixth, two points clear of Getafe.
Celta’s main trump card is their away form: in terms of points earned on the road, they rank among La Liga’s top three, collecting 30 from 18 away matches. In Bilbao, Miguel Román and Carl Starfelt will be unavailable, but Borja Iglesias and Williot Swedberg could return up front, providing more options in the final third. For Celta, this isn’t just about points — it’s about proving they’re ready for the European stage.
Probable lineups
- Athletic Bilbao: Simón, Gorosabel, Álvarez, Laporte, Lekue, Ruiz de Galarreta, Jauregizar, Iñaki Williams, Navarro, Berenguer, Guruzeta.
- Celta: Radu, Alonso, Lago, Rodríguez, Núñez, López, Moriba, Mingueza, Jutglà, Iglesias, Swedberg.
Match facts & head-to-head
- Celta won the reverse fixture against Athletic 2-0.
- Last season at San Mamés, Athletic defeated Celta 3-1.
- Athletic have won four of their last six La Liga meetings with Celta.
- Both teams have scored in 10 of the last 12 head-to-heads at San Mamés in La Liga.
- There have been at least nine corners in each of the last six meetings between these sides at San Mamés in La Liga.
Prediction
Athletic remain a threat at home, but they come into this match in a dip of form, hit by injuries and with a sense that Valverde’s cycle is ending. The Basques will look to press through the flanks and rely on the San Mamés atmosphere, but without Nico Williams and Sancet they may lack that sharpness between the lines.
Celta look more focused on their current objective: holding onto sixth place, and their strong away record means they won’t fear a trip to Bilbao. I expect a tight contest, but with a fresher attacking structure and greater motivation, the visitors are well placed to snatch crucial points.
