Athletic Bilbao — Atletico Madrid Prediction, H2H and Probable Lineups — 6 December 2025
On December 6, 2025, in Matchday 15 of La Liga, Athletic Bilbao will host Atletico Madrid. The match is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 Central European Time. Let’s take a closer look at the potential outcome of this clash.
Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao come into this match after a home defeat to Real Madrid with a score of 0–3. Overall, the team is in a difficult period: in their last eight matches in all competitions, they have suffered five defeats, earned one draw and won only twice. They currently sit in 8th place with 20 points — four points behind the European qualification zone and already 11 points behind the Champions League places. Offensively, the team struggles: only 14 goals scored in 15 matches, one of the weakest attacking records in La Liga.
Their home form has also been underwhelming. In their last nine games at San Mamés, Bilbao recorded five defeats, one draw and three victories.
Their Champions League performance has been disappointing as well. After five matches, the team has collected only four points — a home win over Qarabag and a draw with Slavia Praha. The rest of the matches were lost. Reaching the knockout stage will be an extremely difficult task given the tough upcoming schedule, with the next match being against Paris Saint-Germain.
As for home matches against Atletico Madrid, Athletic lost the most recent one, but in their last six meetings in Bilbao they hold a positive record — four wins and two defeats. Most of these games were low-scoring and tightly contested.
Atletico Madrid
Despite a 1–3 away defeat to Barcelona in their last match, Atletico Madrid are still in great form. That loss ended their seven-match winning streak in all competitions. The team now sits in 4th place with 31 points, just six behind the Catalans. Their defensive numbers are excellent: Atletico have conceded only 14 goals in 14 league matches — one of the best defensive records in the competition.
However, their away form is less convincing. Out of nine away matches in all competitions this season, they have only two wins, along with three draws and four defeats.
In the Champions League, Atletico beat Inter at home in their last match, following a win over Royal Union SG. Thanks to these victories, they have improved their position in the group and currently remain well-placed to reach the knockout stage.
As for head-to-head matches, Athletic dominated the most recent meetings, winning the last three. Looking at the last six encounters, the balance is even — three wins each — with four of these six matches finishing under 2.5 goals.
Probable Lineups
- Athletic Bilbao: Simon, Yuri, Paredes, Vivian, Inigo, Jauregizar, Rego, Nico Williams, Berenguer, Nico Serrano, Guruzeta
- Atletico Madrid: Oblak, Hancko, Ruggeri, Lenglet, Molina, Gonzalez, Barrios, Koke, Simeone, Griezmann, Sorloth
Key Facts and Head-to-Head
- Athletic Bilbao have failed to win 6 of their last 8 matches.
- Atletico Madrid have won 7 of their last 8 matches.
- Atletico Madrid have won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head meetings.
- 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches in Bilbao have seen under 2.5 goals.
Athletic Bilbao — Atletico Madrid Prediction
Both teams come into this match after defeats, but Atletico’s overall form is significantly stronger. Diego Simeone’s side look more consistent both in La Liga and in European competitions. Athletic, meanwhile, continue to struggle with results and scoring efficiency. Head-to-head matches between these teams in Bilbao are traditionally cautious and low-scoring. Considering Bilbao’s poor attacking numbers, Atletico’s strong defensive record and the tight schedules both clubs face — including important Champions League fixtures ahead — we do not expect an open or high-tempo match. My bet for this match: Total Goals Under 2.5 at odds of 1.67.
