Atalanta vs Bologna: prediction, H2H and probable lineups — 17.05.2026
One of the matches of Serie A’s 37th round will take place this Sunday at the New Balance Arena in Bergamo, where local side Atalanta hosts Bologna. Here’s my take on how this clash will unfold: the hosts just need to avoid a heavy defeat to secure their European spot, while the visitors are forced to play with virtually no room for caution.
Match preview
Atalanta are having a season below the standards of their previous two campaigns, when they fought for top-four places, but a European finish is still within reach. After Inter’s Coppa Italia triumph, seventh place now grants a Conference League ticket, and that’s exactly the spot Raffaele Palladino’s team currently holds. With two rounds to go, the Bergamaschi have a six-point cushion over Bologna, and considering their 2-0 head-to-head win in the first half of the season, their task is purely pragmatic: avoid losing by three goals or more.
In the previous round, Atalanta finally snapped a five-game winless streak across all competitions, defeating Milan 3-2 at the San Siro. Ederson, Davide Zappacosta, and Giacomo Raspadori built up a three-goal lead, after which the hosts survived a late Rossoneri onslaught to hold on for the win. However, the squad situation is worrying: Giorgio Scalvini is out with an ankle injury, Odilon Kossounou has also ended his season early, Isak Hien is suspended, and there are still questions over Berat Djimsiti and Lorenzo Bernasconi.
Bologna are still clinging to a slim European hope, though the math for Vincenzo Italiano’s men is nearly merciless. On Monday, the Rossoblù beat Napoli away 3-2: they first squandered a two-goal lead, but Jonathan Rowe netted the winner in the 91st minute. It was a rare and spectacular result - the first time since 2012 that Bologna have scored three away goals against Napoli.
To keep their chances for seventh alive, the visitors need not just to win in Bergamo, but to do so by at least three goals, then beat Inter in the final round and hope for an Atalanta defeat against Fiorentina. Bologna’s form is truly impressive: six wins in their last eight Serie A fixtures and one of the league’s best away records - 31 points from 18 road games. Their absences are significant too: Nicolo Casale, Martin Vitik, and Nicolo Cambiaghi are injured, John Lucumí is suspended, but Napoli hero Rowe is expected to start.
Probable lineups
- Atalanta: Carnesecchi, de Roon, Akanor, Kolasinac, Zappacosta, Pasalic, Ederson, Zalewski, De Ketelaere, Raspadori, Krstovic.
- Bologna: Pessina, Mario, Helland, Heggem, Miranda, Pobega, Freuler, Ferguson, Orsolini, Rowe, Castro.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Atalanta beat Bologna 2-0 in the first half of the season at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara.
- Bologna have won six of their last eight Serie A matches and remain one of the league’s strongest away sides.
- Atalanta only need to avoid a defeat by three goals or more to guarantee a fourth straight European campaign.
Prediction
Atalanta come into this match in a much stronger league position, but not with an ideal squad. Defensive absences are glaring for the hosts, and the recent Milan match showed that Palladino’s side can attack with flair but still struggle to see out games calmly. With the current scenario, risk management is more important for the Bergamaschi than chasing victory at all costs.
Bologna have no choice but to go all out, as a narrow win does little for their Conference League ambitions. The visitors are in fine form, confident on the road, and come into this clash on a high after their win over Napoli. However, pulling off a big win in Bergamo is a different story altogether, and even with a strong display, the Rossoblù might fall short of the required margin. My pick - Bologna will not lose.
