Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest: prediction, head-to-head stats and probable lineups — 07.05.2026
One of Thursday’s main European fixtures takes place in Birmingham at Villa Park, where Aston Villa host Nottingham Forest in the decisive second leg of the Europa League semi-final. After Forest’s narrow victory in the first leg, the tie remains wide open, and the hosts are set for a test of both quality and character.
Match preview
Aston Villa approach the second leg on the back of a worrying run: Unai Emery’s side have lost three games in a row for the first time this season. In addition to falling to Nottingham, the Villans were beaten by Fulham and Tottenham, but it’s their European home form that remains their trump card. Before the defeat to Spurs, Emery’s side had won four consecutive home matches, with a combined score of 12:3. Furthermore, Villa have picked up 35 points at home in the Premier League - best outside the top three.
Emery deliberately rested several key players in the last Premier League round, so expect the strongest possible lineup in Birmingham. Villa Park has long been a fortress for the team: in their last 19 European home games, Aston Villa have suffered just one defeat.
Nottingham Forest arrive in Birmingham riding a wave of confidence: the team have won five straight matches and are unbeaten in ten. After overcoming Aston Villa in the first leg, Forest put on a show at Stamford Bridge with a 3-1 away win over Chelsea.
Vítor Pereira’s side are playing with rare confidence and ruthlessly punish opponents’ mistakes, but squad issues could upset their balance. Morgan Gibbs-White’s involvement is in doubt, and Ola Aina’s possible absence leaves a problem at right-back. It’s also worth noting that since February, Forest have conceded in six of their last nine away matches in all competitions.
Probable lineups
- Aston Villa: Martinez, Digne, Torres, Konsa, Cash, Tielemans, Bogarde, Rogers, Buendía, McGinn, Watkins.
- Nottingham Forest: Ortega, Aina, Milenković, Morato, Williams, Anderson, Domínguez, Bakwa, Hutchinson, Jesus, Wood.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Nottingham Forest won the first leg of the semi-final 1-0 thanks to a Chris Wood penalty.
- Aston Villa have not lost at home to Nottingham since 2016: five wins and two draws.
- Six of the last seven head-to-heads in Birmingham have seen at least three goals scored.
- Aston Villa have won in regulation time in their last nine European home matches.
- Aston Villa have scored at least two goals in regulation time in eight of their last nine European home matches.
- Aston Villa have not taken more than five corners in regulation time in ten of their last twelve European home matches.
Prediction
Aston Villa will look to take the initiative, pushing with pace, width, and set pieces, but this Nottingham side are too sharp in transition to simply sit back and defend. The hosts are capable of winning the match, but Forest have the quality to score and stay in the hunt for a place in the final.
