Arsenal vs Chelsea: prediction, head-to-head and probable line-ups – 3.02.2026
One of the second-leg clashes in the Carabao Cup semi-finals will take place on Tuesday at the Emirates Stadium in London, where local side Arsenal will host Chelsea. I’m offering a bet on the outcome of this London derby, with excellent odds for success.
Match preview
Arsenal have stabilized their game after a tricky January spell, during which they lost their winning momentum for three matches. The 4-0 Premier League victory over Leeds showed that Arteta’s structure and tactical vision remain intact – especially in set-piece routines and relentless pressure in the final third. The Gunners are fighting for four trophies this season, and the League Cup is one competition in which they’ve been nearly flawless.
There are some squad concerns: Saka and Merino are doubtful, but Odegaard’s expected return should inject creativity in midfield. Cup goalkeeper Kepa is likely to start again, replacing Raya. At the Emirates, Arsenal have beaten Chelsea three times in a row, and their current form suggests that run could continue.
Chelsea, under new manager Liam Rosenior, have looked revitalized: the team has won five matches on the bounce, displaying character and attacking variety. Notable wins over Napoli and West Ham stand out, with the Blues showing the ability to turn games around, playing to the result and adapting to their opponents – clear evidence of Rosenior’s growing influence.
However, Chelsea’s game is far from perfect – particularly at the back. The team often struggles to play out from the press, and against Arsenal, who excel at suffocating opponents in these phases, this could prove costly. Some light rotation is possible, but defensive frailties remain a pressing concern ahead of this crucial encounter.
Probable line-ups
- Arsenal: Arrizabalaga, Gabriel, Saliba, Hincapié, Timber, Zubimendi, Rice, Martinelli, Odegaard, Madueke, Gyökeres
- Chelsea: Sánchez, Chalobah, Fofana, James, Cucurella, Caicedo, Neto, Palmer, Fernández, Pedro, Delap
Match facts and head-to-head
- Arsenal have beaten Chelsea in their last three Emirates meetings.
- The Gunners are unbeaten against Chelsea since 2022 – a run of ten matches.
- Both teams have scored in five of the last seven meetings.
Prediction
Arsenal are back to their usual standards after a January blip and will likely field an almost full-strength line-up, boosted by Odegaard’s return in midfield. The Gunners have self-belief, high-intensity pressing, and an outstanding home record against Chelsea. The Blues have improved under Rosenior, but their defensive vulnerabilities could be decisive at this stage of the competition. Expect a confident home win with both sides finding the net.
