Arrasate’s return could upset the hosts’ plans: Sevilla vs. Osasuna prediction
The La Liga clash between Sevilla and Osasuna in the 10th round will take place on Monday at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. The hosts sit sixth, five points adrift of the Champions League places, while the team from Pamplona is 11th and holds a three-point cushion over the relegation zone. Sevilla have slowed down after a strong start, while Osasuna received an emotional boost following the return of Jagoba Arrasate.
Sevilla: a dip explained by a difficult schedule
Luis García’s side have picked up just one point from their last three matches, although this run cannot be described as a full-blown crisis. Sevilla lost 1-3 to Barcelona and 1-4 to Real Madrid, while in between those games they drew 3-3 away to Levante in a demanding fixture, despite taking the lead twice. At the same time, their defense is a genuine concern: the high number of goals conceded is beginning to look like a systemic problem.
One positive is the return of several players. Isaac Romero has served his suspension, while Jon Guridi and Lucas Stassin are close to returning to full team training, although neither is expected to start. In addition, Sevilla have the best bench in La Liga: five different players have already scored after coming on as substitutes, collectively contributing six goals and eight of the team’s 14 points.
Osasuna: the Arrasate effect is already visible
Jagoba Arrasate’s return has had an immediate impact. In his first match back, Osasuna ended a five-game winless run and comfortably beat Racing 2-0. The 3.38 to 0.29 expected-goals differential only underlines how convincing the team looked, while characteristic features of Arrasate’s football have already emerged — high pressing, aggression and more vertical attacks.
The main downside is their away form. After beating Celta, Osasuna lost three consecutive away matches by an aggregate score of 4-14, and over a longer stretch, that victory remains their only one in their last 11 away games. Their record at Sevilla is also poor: 13 defeats and just one win in their last 17 meetings. Nevertheless, Enzo Boyomo’s return to the starting lineup after the managerial change has noticeably strengthened the defense.
Match facts and head-to-head record
- Fewer than three goals were scored in five of the last six matches between Sevilla and Osasuna.
- Osasuna have avoided defeat against Sevilla in five of their last six meetings.
- At Sevilla, Osasuna have suffered 13 defeats and won just one of their last 17 matches.
The hosts are stronger at home, but the visitors are revived: Sevilla vs. Osasuna prediction
Sevilla should benefit from home advantage, squad depth and the return of several players. However, their defensive problems have not gone away, and recent matches have shown that the team allows opponents back into the game far too easily, even after taking the lead.
Osasuna still look vulnerable away from home, but the change in management has given them a powerful emotional lift. The team have become more aggressive, work better without the ball and already showed clear progress in their first match following Arrasate’s return. As a result, the visitors are more than capable of fighting for a result.
