Argentina vs. Cape Verde: another step for the champions or the biggest playoff upset?

Argentina vs Cabo Verde prediction Photo by Charlotte Wilson/Getty Images
World Cup (Round 1/16) 03 july 2026, 18:00
Finished
3 : 2
International, Miami, Miami Stadium
Lionel Messi
29'
Lisandro Martinez
92'
Diney Borges
111' (OG)
59'
Deroy Duarte
103'
Sidny Lopes Cabral

The World Cup playoffs are a completely different ball game. Here, there’s no room for error: lose, and it’s time to pack your bags. That’s exactly why the upcoming clash between Argentina and Cape Verde, set for July 3 in Miami (local time), stands out as one of the most intriguing ties in the Round of 32.

At first glance, the intrigue seems minimal. Argentina cruised through the group stage, winning all three matches, while Lionel Messi continues to prove that age is just a number. Lionel Scaloni’s squad looks solid and cohesive: squad depth allows for seamless rotation, and there are several attackers capable of turning the game on its head in a heartbeat. The coaching staff has also managed to keep the squad’s key players fresh for the most crucial stage of the tournament.

But it would be a mistake to write off Cape Verde. For this World Cup debutant, simply reaching the playoffs is already a historic achievement. The team went unbeaten in their group, kept two clean sheets, and even managed to deny Spain a victory. The African side’s main strengths are incredible discipline, relentless work rate, and a willingness to dig deep without the ball. Thanks to their well-organized defense, Cape Verde find themselves among the world’s top 32 teams.

Of course, the gulf in class between these two sides is enormous. If Argentina can strike early, the match could follow the script expected of a tournament favorite. But if Cape Verde manage to keep things level at least until halftime, the pressure on the reigning world champions will mount with every passing minute.

All eyes will once again be on Lionel Messi. The forward is in stunning form, rewriting his own records and remaining the tournament’s brightest star. Yet Argentina are far from a one-man team: Lautaro Martínez, Julián Álvarez, Enzo Fernández, Alexis Mac Allister and other world-class talents are all ready to step up.

For Cape Verde, this is a chance to etch their name into football history. They have absolutely nothing to lose, which means they’ll play with total freedom. It’s often these fearless underdogs who produce the World Cup’s biggest shocks.

As for predictions, Argentina are overwhelming favorites. Scaloni’s side outclass their opponents in terms of squad quality, experience, and style of play. However, the World Cup playoffs have shown time and again that being the favorite guarantees nothing. Expect Cape Verde to fight for every ball and do everything possible to complicate the champions’ lives.

Prediction: over 2.5 goals.

Probable lineups:

  • Argentina: Martínez, Molina, Romero, L. Martínez, Medina, Mac Allister, Fernández, De Paul, Messi, L. Martínez, Almada.
  • Cape Verde: Vozinha, S. L. Cabral, Diney, Pico, Moreira, Lenini, J. Cabral, J. Monteiro, D. Duarte, R. Mendes, D. R. Livramento.
Prediction on game Total over 2.5
Odds: 1.65
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