Amorim still unbeaten in Serie A. Prediction for Udinese vs Milan
Udinese and Milan will meet on Sunday, October 25, in the eighth round of the Italian championship. The game will be played at the Friuli Stadium in Udine, with kickoff at 20:45 CET. I am backing a goals market in this match.
H2H and statistical facts
- Udinese have lost five matches in a row.
- Milan are still unbeaten in the current Serie A season.
- Udinese have conceded in nine consecutive matches.
- The team from Udine are now winless in six straight matches.
- Udinese scored 7 of their 9 goals in the first half.
- Milan have conceded almost half of their goals in the final 15 minutes of matches.
- The Rossoneri scored 9 of their 14 Serie A goals between the 60th and 75th minutes.
- Milan have beaten Udinese three times in a row in their previous meetings at the latter's home ground.
Udinese
Udinese have endured an extremely difficult few weeks. In the previous Serie A round, the team suffered a 0-3 home defeat to Lecce, having already lost 1-2 away to Torino before that. Prior to those games came defeats by Cagliari, Inter and Lazio. As a result, Kosta Runjaic's side have suffered five consecutive league defeats and urgently need a reaction to avoid slipping even closer to the relegation zone.
Udinese's main problem is defensive instability. Across the opening seven rounds, the team have conceded 16 goals—an average of more than two per game. The recent defeat to Lecce was particularly alarming: the visitors scored three times, while Udinese failed to respond with a single goal. Even when the team create chances going forward, defensive mistakes too often wipe out the efforts of the attacking players.
That said, Udinese should not be written off completely. The team are capable of producing high-scoring games, as shown by their 3-2 win over Monza and their meeting with Inter, in which Udinese scored three goals despite ultimately losing 3-5. Keinan Davis plays an important role in attack, using his physical presence to hold up passes and create space for his teammates' runs.
The home advantage is not looking like a major asset for Udinese at the moment either. In four home matches in the championship, the team have not recorded a single win: one draw and three defeats. The support from the stands alone therefore offers no guarantee of a turnaround.
Milan
Milan head into the eighth round with far more convincing league numbers. After seven matches, the team have collected 15 points, recording four wins and three draws. In the previous Serie A round, the Rossoneri beat Atalanta 3-2 in a tense encounter, having previously shared the points with Sassuolo in a 1-1 draw. Overall, the team have maintained their consistency and remain unbeaten in the league, allowing them to stay in the fight for the top positions.
Milan look significantly more convincing than their upcoming opponents in attack. The team have scored 14 goals in seven rounds, while their match against Atalanta demonstrated their ability to secure a result even in a highly challenging contest.
At the same time, the defense is not always flawless: Milan conceded twice in the last round. Nevertheless, the overall gap between the teams is clear—Milan regularly create scoring chances and make better use of them, whereas Udinese lose points far too often because of mistakes in front of their own goal.
Compared with Udinese, Milan have a deeper squad and greater attacking versatility. The team can control possession, exploit the flanks and apply pressure through movement between the lines. At the same time, the visitors must prevent their opponents from imposing a physical battle and capitalize on mistakes during transitions.
Expected lineups
- Udinese: Okoye, Palma, Solet, Ebosse, Kamara, Vojvoda, Karlstrom, Piotrowski, Ekkelenkamp, Chakvetadze, Davis.
- Milan: Maignan, Pavlovic, de Winter, Gila, Moreira, Estupinan, Modric, Musah, Rabiot, Pulisic, Ramos.
What to bet on?
The difference in the teams' current form is obvious. Udinese have lost their last five league matches and conceded 16 goals in seven rounds, while Milan are still unbeaten in Serie A and come into this clash on the back of a win over Atalanta. Fatigue from their European fixture could make things more difficult for the visitors, but the quality of their squad and the consistency of their results favor the Rossoneri. Amorim's men simply have to beat an opponent like this.
