Ajax vs Utrecht: prediction, head-to-head stats and probable lineups — 10.05.2026
One of the penultimate round matches of the Dutch Eredivisie will be played on Sunday in Amsterdam, where local giants Ajax will host Utrecht at the Johan Cruyff Arena. The hosts are still unsure of their European qualification route and are under pressure to win, while the visitors have almost secured a place in the European play-offs. That sets up a prediction for a high-scoring clash with plenty of chances for both sides.
Match preview
Ajax come into this fixture off the back of an emotional De Topper against PSV, where Oscar Garcia's side snatched a draw thanks to a 92nd-minute goal from Mika Godts — the match ended 2-2. That result extended Ajax’s unbeaten streak to three matches, but did not solve the main problem: they remain fourth in the table and could still climb higher or slip into a less comfortable European spot.
For Ajax, victory over Utrecht is almost a must, as they are just one point behind NEC in third, with Twente level on points and breathing down their necks. Godts, who has already scored 17 goals in the Eredivisie, is expected to be the key figure again, while support from Gloukh, Berghuis, and Weghorst gives the hosts plenty of attacking firepower in a match where caution could be more dangerous than risk.
Utrecht have practically sealed their spot in the European play-offs, and the main question ahead of the trip to Amsterdam is the motivation level of Ron Jans' squad. In recent rounds, the visitors have mixed strong performances with setbacks, and their last two away games were especially worrying: first a 3-4 defeat to PSV, then a heavy 0-5 loss to Excelsior.
Still, Utrecht should not be seen as an easy opponent for Ajax: after losing 0-2 in Amsterdam in 2024, they have gone three head-to-head matches without defeat against the Amsterdammers. Last season, Utrecht thrashed Ajax 4-0 at home and managed a 2-2 draw at the Johan Cruyff Arena, so the visitors not only have history but also know how to break down the favourite's defence.
Probable lineups
- Ajax: Paes, Gaaei, Sutalo, Baas, Rosa, Gloukh, Itakura, Mokio, Berghuis, Weghorst, Godts.
- Utrecht: Barkas, Westerlund, Didden, van der Hoorn, El Karouani, Engwanda, Zehil, Alarcon, Karlsson, Katlin, Stepanov.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Utrecht are unbeaten against Ajax in their last three head-to-head encounters.
- In their last home game against PSV, Ajax drew 2-2, scoring a dramatic equaliser in the 92nd minute.
- Utrecht have lost their last two Eredivisie away matches: 3-4 to PSV and 0-5 to Excelsior.
Prediction
Ajax find themselves in a situation where a draw is almost useless — they need to push, take risks and play at full throttle to keep their hopes of a better European spot alive. At the same time, the Amsterdam defence doesn't look impenetrable, and recent meetings with Utrecht suggest this will be anything but a walk in the park for the hosts. Utrecht have the quality to punish open spaces, especially through El Karouani's overlapping runs and Zehil’s activity, but their current away form raises serious doubts. Motivation, home advantage and attacking class should help Ajax edge a tough match, but don’t expect a clean sheet here.
