AEK Athens vs Celje: prediction, head-to-head and probable line-ups – 19 March 2026
On Thursday, the return leg of the Conference League Round of 16 will take place at the Allwyn Arena in Athens, where AEK will host Celje. The Greek side comes into this fixture with almost no pressure after their emphatic victory in Slovenia and will look to calmly secure a place in the next round. I'm backing a bet on goals in this encounter.
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Match preview
AEK approaches the second leg in a very comfortable position and, just as importantly for the coaching staff, in great playing rhythm. Their 4-0 win in the first match all but ended the intrigue, and Marko Nikolić's team looked so confident that after the fourth goal, they could afford to conserve energy and control the tempo. On top of that, it's telling that the Athens club is now unbeaten in ten consecutive matches across all competitions and remains a serious contender in the Greek league title race.
For the hosts, this match is also a perfect opportunity to smartly rotate the squad without disrupting the overall game structure. AEK has no suspended players, but several key men are one booking away from suspension, so Nikolić may well freshen up the line-up and still field a team capable of dictating the play. Even with rotation, the Greeks have enough quality not just to protect their advantage, but to once again set the tone with their ball movement and technical superiority.
Celje arrives in Athens not so much to rescue the tie as to salvage their pride and morale for the rest of the season. The heavy home defeat was a tough blow, but the team managed to bounce back with a 1-0 league win over Koper – this also marked the debut for new head coach Vítor Campelos. In this context, the return leg is more a test of character for the Slovenians and a chance to prove that the first meeting wasn't a definitive verdict on their level.
Objectively, though, the chances for a dramatic turnaround are slim. Over their last eight matches, Celje has recorded four wins and four defeats, while their Conference League campaign was patchy even before running into AEK. Away to a side that is stronger both at home and in terms of overall maturity, it's going to be extremely tough for the Slovenians to maintain compactness throughout the match.
Probable line-ups
- AEK Athens: Strakosha, Penrice, Mukudi, Relvas, Pilios, Gacinovic, Pereira, Marin, Koita, Zini, Varga
- Celje: Leban, Nieto, Hrka, Karnicnik, Tutyskinas, Kalusic, Avdili, Daniel, Kvesic, Iosifov, Koutsis
Match facts and head-to-head
- The first leg in Slovenia ended in a resounding 4-0 win for AEK, with the Greek club all but sealing the tie by the 49th minute.
- AEK are unbeaten in their last ten matches in all competitions, and in the Conference League group stage, they have five wins, one draw and one defeat.
- Celje changed head coach before the return leg and, in Vítor Campelos’ first match, beat Koper 1-0 in the league.
Prediction
It's hard to picture a scenario where AEK lets this tie come back to life. The Athenians are too well-organized, too confident, and too comfortable in their current position to allow for a nervy finish. Celje will likely try to play with more courage than in the first match, but that could actually open up even more space for the hosts.
