Boom! The Ballon d’Or favorite suddenly changed. Who is it?

The Ballon d’Or race is changing literally by the hour.

Details: A snapshot published by Polymarket Sports showed a dramatic change at the top of the 2026 Ballon d’Or prediction market. At that moment, Barcelona star Lamine Yamal had moved into first place with a 45% implied probability, while Bayern Munich striker Harry Kane stood at 42%.

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However, the situation has already changed again. At the latest live check of the Polymarket market, Kane had returned to the top with 44.7%, while Yamal was close behind on 43.6%. The gap between the two leading contenders therefore remains extremely small, underlining how quickly prices can move on a prediction market.

The market has generated more than $40.6 million in trading volume. These percentages are not official Ballon d’Or voting results: they reflect the prices set by traders on Polymarket and can change continuously. Both Yamal and Kane are officially among the nominees for the 2026 award, with the winner set to be announced at the Ballon d’Or ceremony in London on October 26.

It is worth noting that 19-year-old Yamal remains a Barcelona player, while Kane continues to lead the attack for Bayern Munich. With less than a month remaining before the ceremony, their battle is also being mirrored almost point for point on the prediction market.

Reminder: Breaking! Ballon d’Or voting results leaked. Who is leading?