Liam Garcia
Dailysports's expert
On May 12, 2025, the Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo in Venice will host another Serie A clash as Venezia take on Fiorentina. I'm not expecting a high-scoring affair between these sides.
Venezia
It's crunch time for Venezia — the final three rounds will determine their Serie A fate. As things stand, the club sits second from bottom, 19th in the table, two points away from the safety of 17th place. That makes this match against Fiorentina absolutely crucial: a defeat could all but end their hopes of staying in the top flight.
Eusebio Di Francesco’s side has been trying to turn things around in recent weeks. Venezia have picked up 6 points from their last five matches — not a bad return for a team fighting for survival. However, the run-in looks daunting. After Fiorentina, they face a trip to Cagliari, who are relatively comfortable with a six-point cushion above the drop zone. Venezia will then close out the campaign at home against Juventus, who are battling for a Champions League spot.
Their home form, however, leaves much to be desired. In this calendar year, Venezia have played nine matches at home, winning just once — against already-relegated Monza. They've suffered defeats to the likes of Inter, Roma, Milan, and Bologna, underlining the tough fixture list.
There have been positives, though: goalless draws with Napoli and Lazio show Venezia can defend in an organized manner against top-tier sides. Notably, they rarely suffer heavy home defeats. In just one of those nine matches did they concede more than once, highlighting a solid defensive foundation at home despite their overall struggles.
Fiorentina
Much to the disappointment of their fans, Fiorentina failed to reach the Conference League final. In the previous two seasons, they fell just short of the trophy — losing to West Ham (1-2) in 2023 and Olympiacos (0-1) in 2024. This season, Raffaele Palladino’s men were stopped by Betis. The Italians managed to win in regular time to force extra time, but the Spaniards were more clinical in the added period, scoring the decisive goal to eliminate Fiorentina. Psychologically, this third straight European heartbreak could weigh heavily on the squad.
Nevertheless, Fiorentina still have a shot at European competition via Serie A. In fact, a Champions League push is not out of the question, though competition is fierce. They trail fourth-placed Juventus by five points, with Juve having played one more match.
The run-in promises to be intense. After the trip to Venice, Fiorentina host Bologna — a direct rival for European places — before ending the season away to Udinese. The latter have nothing left to play for, but they did beat Fiorentina 2-1 in Florence in the first half of the season, so complacency could be costly.
Probable line-ups
- Venezia: Radu, Shingting, Idzes, Cande, Zerbin, Busio, Nicolussi, Konde, Haps, Yeboah, Gytkjaer
- Fiorentina: De Gea, Pongracic, Somuzzo, Ranieri, Parisi, Mandragora, Richardson, Fagioli, Gosens, Gudmundsson, Kean
Match facts and H2H
- In Venezia’s last nine home matches, the under 2.5 goals bet has landed.
- The reverse fixture earlier this season ended goalless in Florence.
- Venezia have failed to score in 9 of 17 home matches this season.
- In the last four head-to-heads in Venice, the under 2.5 goals bet has also landed.
Prediction
Fiorentina are drained after their painful European exit, while Venezia are defensively solid at home and highly motivated in their relegation fight. The hosts are unlikely to lose by more than one goal; a draw is very possible. My pick: under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.65.
