Raphael Durand
Dailysports's expert
One of the highlight matches of the fourth round in the Copa Libertadores group stage will take place on Thursday, May 8, in Lima, where Sporting Cristal will host Bolivian side Bolivar at the Estadio Nacional. I’m backing a bet on goals in this clash, which looks like a solid pick for success.
Match preview
The Peruvian giants head into this contest as if walking through a minefield—there’s simply no room for error. Sporting Cristal have already dropped points in their first three group stage fixtures, earning just one point while conceding a worrying eight goals. True, in round three, Los Celestes clawed out a 2-2 draw away to Cerro Porteño in Asunción, salvaging a crucial equalizer deep in stoppage time. But prior to that, they suffered a 2-3 home defeat to Palmeiras and crashed 0-3 away in La Paz against Bolivar.
On the domestic front, Sporting’s situation is equally unstable. In their most recent league match, they edged Juan Pablo II 3-2, but that win was not enough to lift them above ninth in the standings. The gap to leaders Universitario is considerable, and their inconsistent results hint at deep-rooted issues. Nevertheless, home advantage and the motivation to save their continental campaign could prove decisive in this encounter.
Bolivar are one of those teams that truly come alive only in the rarefied air of La Paz. At 3,600 meters above sea level, they made light work of Sporting (3-0) and pushed Palmeiras to the limit, losing only 2-3 in a fierce tussle. But away from home, things get tricky for the Bolivians—their defense faltered in the visit to Cerro Porteño, resulting in a hard-fought 2-4 defeat. Now, the Academics are hitting the road again, heading into an environment that’s anything but thin-aired and onto a pitch that’s not their own.
Back home, though, Paulo Autuori’s side look supremely confident: in their last Bolivian league outing, Bolivar demolished Academia Balompié 3-0, extending their dominance in the domestic championship. That was their second consecutive emphatic victory, so morale is high. Bolivar have the attacking resources to chase victory even away from home, but much will depend on how well they adapt to challenging conditions and avoid defensive lapses.
Probable lineups
- Sporting Cristal: Enriquez, Pasquini, Toranza, Romero, Massoni, Castro, Pretel, Tavara, Gonzalez, Avila, Cauteruccio
- Bolivar: Lanziolotta, Sagredo, Sagredo, Torrén, Rocha, Vaca, Justiniano, Mateus, Rodriguez, Gomez, Melgar
Match facts & head-to-head
- Prior to this season, the teams met in 2006, with Sporting Cristal coming out on top in both encounters
- The "Over 2.5 goals" bet has landed in 15 consecutive Bolivar matches
- The "Over 2.5 goals" market has hit in 7 out of the last 10 games involving Sporting Cristal
Prediction
This match is a true crossroads for both teams: defeat will end one side’s hopes of reaching the playoffs. In this scenario, the best value looks to be the "Over 2.5 goals" bet at odds of 1.65.
