Luis Torres
Dailysports's expert
On June 13, 2025, as part of the Brazilian Serie A, São Paulo will host Vasco da Gama at their home stadium. The match is scheduled to kick off at 2:30 Central European Time. Let's take a closer look at the teams' scoring potential for this clash.
São Paulo
São Paulo heads into this upcoming fixture in less than ideal spirits, having suffered two consecutive defeats in the Brazilian championship. First, there was a 0-2 home loss to Mirassol, followed by a 1-2 defeat away to Bahia. After 11 rounds, São Paulo sits in 13th place on the table, with 12 points and a modest goal difference—9 scored and 11 conceded.
However, if we broaden the perspective to all competitions, the picture isn't as alarming. Over their last six matches across all tournaments, the team has lost only twice—both in the league. In the other fixtures, São Paulo has shown solid form: for instance, there was an important 2-1 victory over Nautico in the Brazilian Cup, which sent them through to the round of 16. Moreover, the team confidently topped their Copa Libertadores group, finishing first and advancing to the playoff stage.
One key stat worth highlighting is São Paulo's record against Vasco da Gama at home. In the last ten home encounters, the hosts have not lost once: eight wins and two draws. This consistency on their own turf against Vasco could prove decisive in the upcoming game.
Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama finds themselves in a situation quite similar to their rivals. In their last two league matches, they've suffered back-to-back defeats: first, a 1-2 loss away to Fluminense, then a 0-2 home defeat to Bragantino. After 11 games, Vasco sits 15th in the table with 10 points and a 11–15 goal difference, trailing São Paulo by just two points.
It's important to note that all of Vasco's points have come at home. On the road, they remain one of the league's poorest travelers—zero points from five away games, with only three goals scored and ten conceded.
In the national cups, Vasco also reached the round of 16, but only managed to do so after a penalty shootout against Operário. Internationally, they're still in the hunt: in the Copa Sudamericana, Vasco finished second in their group and advanced to the round of 32, keeping their hopes alive for continental glory.
Probable lineups
- São Paulo: Rafael, Soares, Wendell, Sabino, Arboleda, Bobadilla, Pablo Maia, Ferreira, Luciano, Dias, Francisco.
- Vasco da Gama: Jardim, Paulo Henrique, Joao Victor, Freitas, Piton, Jair, Che Che, Coutinho, Ryan, Vegetti, Moreira.
Interesting facts and head-to-head stats
- São Paulo has seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Both teams have scored in 5 of São Paulo's last 6 games.
- Vasco da Gama has failed to win 12 of their last 14 matches.
- Vasco da Gama has lost 7 of their last 8 away games.
- São Paulo has won 4 of their last 5 home H2H clashes.
- São Paulo is unbeaten in 6 of the last 7 H2H meetings.
- 4 of the last 5 H2H encounters have ended with over 2.5 goals scored.
São Paulo – Vasco da Gama match prediction
São Paulo enters this matchup as the clear favorite—they play confidently at home and boast a strong head-to-head record against Vasco da Gama, especially at Morumbi. Meanwhile, the visitors have been woeful on the road, failing to collect a single point in away league matches. Still, meetings between these two sides are often high-scoring and tense. Four of their last five encounters have featured over 2.5 goals, with both teams regularly finding the net. Given São Paulo's attacking potential and Vasco's defensive instability, all signs point to another thrilling, goal-laden contest. My pick for this match: over 2 goals at odds of 1.87.
