Raphael Durand
Dailysports's expert
One of the fixtures of Ligue 1’s Matchday 34 will take place this Saturday at the Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, where local side Saint-Étienne will host Toulouse. I’m backing a goal-focused bet in this clash with solid chances for success.
Match preview
After suffering back-to-back 1-3 defeats in Ligue 1, Saint-Étienne finally managed to bounce back last round, beating Reims 2-0. That victory trimmed their gap to the relegation play-off zone to just one point, and the safety of 15th place is only two points away, though the team remains in 17th. Every point now is crucial in the fight for survival.
Notably, the match against Reims was just the fifth time this season that Saint-Étienne kept a clean sheet. However, their defense remains a weak link: the team has already picked the ball out of their own net 74 times—worse only than relegated Montpellier (76). It’s also worth noting that Saint-Étienne have failed to win 14 of their last 17 Ligue 1 matches (5 draws, 9 losses).
Toulouse extended their unbeaten run in Ligue 1 to three games (1 win, 2 draws), drawing 1-1 with Lens in a lively encounter last time out. This successful spell has secured their top-flight status for another season. Heading into the final round, Toulouse sit 12th in the table, a comfortable six points clear of the relegation play-off zone.
However, Toulouse have struggled for consistency away from home. They haven’t won any of their last four Ligue 1 road matches (1 draw, 3 losses), failing to score in their two most recent outings. Overall, Toulouse have failed to win 8 of their last 9 league games (3 draws, 5 defeats).
Probable line-ups
- Saint-Étienne: Gautier Larsonneur – Léo Pétrot, Mickaël Nadé, Maxime Berno, Denis Appiah – Pierre-Emmanuel Ekwa, Aïmen Moueffek, Florian Tardieu – Zuriko Davitashvili, Ibrahima Wadji, Irvin Cardona
- Toulouse: Guillaume Restes – Jaidi Kanwo, Mark McKenzie, Djibril Sidibé – Warren Kamanzi, Vincent Sierro, Cristian Cásseres, Aron Dønnum – Joshua King, Yann Gboho, Frank Magri
Match facts and head-to-head
- Toulouse won the reverse fixture 2-1
- The over 2.5 goals bet has landed in three of the last five meetings
- Both teams to score has also hit in three of the last five encounters
Prediction
Bookmakers are siding with the hosts for this clash, offering odds around 2.12 for a Saint-Étienne victory. We believe that Eirik Horneland’s men have no choice but to go all-out in this crucial match. It’s clear Saint-Étienne won’t be sitting back at home. In fact, throughout this Ligue 1 campaign, the team has played with attacking intent, favoring open football. Unsurprisingly, their matches are among the most high-scoring in the league—averaging 3.4 goals per game. Our pick: over 3.0 total goals at odds of 1.82.
