Liam Garcia
Dailysports's expert
On May 7, 2025, the Parc des Princes in Paris will host the second leg of the UEFA Champions League semi-final between PSG and Arsenal. Here’s why betting on goals in this clash could be the smart move.
PSG
Paris Saint-Germain head into the return leg with a comfortable advantage after a narrow win in London. Thanks to an early goal from Ousmane Dembélé, Luis Enrique’s side kept the game firmly under control, denying Arsenal any truly dangerous chances while creating several opportunities to extend their lead.
With their Ligue 1 title already wrapped up, PSG rotated their squad ahead of this crucial fixture. In their away match against Strasbourg, the French champions fielded a semi-rotated line-up and focused little on the result. The hosts won 2-1, keeping Liam Rosenior’s side in the hunt for a Champions League spot right up to the final matchday.
At home this season, PSG have dominated nearly every contest, though their superiority hasn’t always translated to the scoreboard. Luis Enrique’s team have lost only three times at the Parc des Princes — to Nice (1-3), Liverpool (0-1), and Atlético (1-2). Statistically, they outperformed their opponents in all three, boasting a combined xG of 7.07 to just 1.9 for the opposition. Still, the final goal difference was 2-6 against the hosts.
Arsenal face an extremely tough test, especially with the need to take the initiative and chase goals. PSG, meanwhile, have already shown their strength at home against English clubs, beating Aston Villa 3-1 and Manchester City 4-2.
The main question ahead of the return leg is the fitness of Ousmane Dembélé. The match-winner from the first leg didn’t finish the game, leaving the pitch in the 70th minute due to discomfort in his hamstring. His participation in the second leg remains in doubt.
Arsenal
In the first leg, Arsenal failed to show the level of play their fans had hoped for. After a thrilling battle with Real Madrid, many expected the Gunners to deliver similar quality and dynamism against the French champions. It’s no surprise that Arsenal were slight favourites to reach the final before the first leg. However, Mikel Arteta’s side lacked pace, aggression, and cutting edge in the final third.
Heading into the return fixture in Paris, Arsenal are reeling from an unexpected Premier League defeat. At home, despite leading, the Gunners fell 2-1 to Bournemouth. Notably, both goals conceded came from set pieces — an area traditionally considered a strength under Mikel Arteta. That loss dropped Arsenal into a scrap for second place: besides Southampton in the final round, they still have to face Liverpool and Newcastle, and are only three points ahead of an in-form Manchester City.
This upcoming match in Paris could well be the defining moment of Mikel Arteta’s managerial career. The Basque coach has transformed the team both tactically and mentally since taking charge, but without major trophies, his work risks being remembered as just a fleeting chapter in club history.
Probable line-ups
- PSG: Donnarumma, Hakimi, Marquinhos, Paco, Mendes, Neves, Vitinha, Ruiz, Dje, Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia
- Arsenal: Raya, White, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly, Trossard, Partey, Rice, Saka, Merino, Martinelli
Match facts and H2H
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last seven away matches, showing real consistency on the road.
- PSG have scored in each of their last five home games, underlining their attacking prowess at the Parc des Princes.
- In Arsenal’s last five away fixtures, both teams have scored in four — only once did the Gunners keep a clean sheet.
- PSG show a similar trend: only once in their last five home matches did they keep their opponents from scoring.
Prediction
With Arsenal chasing the tie, they’ll be forced to go on the attack from the first whistle. That should give PSG plenty of space to exploit on the counter — an area where Luis Enrique’s side are traditionally dangerous. Expect an open, end-to-end game with plenty of chances. In these circumstances, betting on over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.66 looks like a solid choice.
