Liam Garcia
Dailysports's expert
On May 15, 2025, El Sadar Stadium in Pamplona will play host to another La Liga showdown between Osasuna and Atletico. I believe the home side has a real shot at snatching points in this encounter.
Osasuna
Osasuna is enjoying a solid and confident season, which sees the team sitting 11th in the table with three rounds to go and still very much in the race for a European spot. They’re just two points away from the coveted 8th place, currently held by Rayo Vallecano, which grants a ticket to the Conference League. The competition is fierce: only six points separate teams from 7th to 12th place, guaranteeing a tense battle until the final whistle of the season.
Osasuna’s recent form is encouraging: in their last seven matches, they suffered just one defeat — away to Villarreal (2-4). In the other six games, the Reds picked up three wins and three draws, collecting a solid 12 points. This run has been one of the best stretches for the club this season.
Particularly noteworthy is Osasuna’s reliability at home. Throughout the campaign, the team hasn’t lost a single home match by more than one goal. Moreover, against Spanish football giants Real Madrid and Barcelona, Osasuna managed to take four points—an achievement that speaks volumes.
The key man up front remains Croatian striker Ante Budimir. He’s already netted 19 goals, the third-best tally in the league, trailing only Mbappe and Lewandowski. This is Budimir’s best scoring season of his career, and his consistency has been crucial in Osasuna’s European quest.
Atletico
Atletico has its own firepower ready to challenge the Croatian ace. In the previous round, Norwegian target man Alexander Sorloth bagged four goals against Real Sociedad, instantly propelling him to the top of Atletico’s scoring chart with 17 goals. Not far behind is Argentine Julian Alvarez, who has netted 15 times. Diego Simeone’s side, therefore, enjoys a serious attacking advantage.
In terms of league motivation, Atletico has practically secured its objectives. The Madrid side is almost certain to finish third. They trail Real by 5 points, and it’s hard to imagine Los Blancos stumbling at the finish line. At the same time, Atletico holds a six-point cushion over their nearest chasers, Athletic Bilbao, who have yet to guarantee a top-five finish but are unlikely to catch Simeone’s men.
However, Atletico’s away form raises some questions. Over their last seven away matches, they’ve managed just one win, with three draws and three defeats. Still, Atletico boasts the best away defense in La Liga, conceding just 13 goals on the road—a factor that could prove decisive in a tough battle at El Sadar.
Probable lineups
- Osasuna: Herrera, Areso, Boyomo, Catena, Cruz, Garcia, Ibanez, Torro, Zaragoza, Oroz, Budimir
- Atletico: Oblak, Llorente, Gimenez, Le Normand, Galan, Barrios, De Paul, Koke, Simeone, Sorloth, Alvarez
Match facts and H2H
- The reverse fixture ended in a narrow 1-0 win for Atletico—Madrid took all three points in their trademark pragmatic style.
- However, the most alarming stat for Osasuna is their home record against Atletico. The last six meetings at El Sadar have all ended in victories for the visitors, with a daunting aggregate scoreline of 1-17. That’s a psychological hurdle that’s hard to ignore.
- Nonetheless, Osasuna are playing with more freedom this stretch. In five of their last six matches, both teams have scored—only once did the Reds manage a clean sheet. The team consistently creates chances, but also leaves openings for their opponents.
- For Atletico, the story is different. In their last four matches, the “both teams to score” bet hasn’t come through. Moreover, the Madrid side has failed to score in two consecutive away games—a worrying sign given their waning motivation and patchy away form.
Prediction
Osasuna are fired up in their hunt for European football, while Atletico arrive with nothing left to play for in the league. I believe the hosts are well positioned to claim points here. Our pick: “Osasuna (2X) double chance” at odds of 1.79.
