Luis Torres
Dailysports's expert
New York Liberty
Phoenix Mercury
On June 20, 2025, at Barclays Center in New York, the WNBA regular season will feature a clash between the New York Liberty and the Phoenix Mercury. Let's take a closer look at a bet focused on one team's scoring output in this matchup.
New York Liberty
After 11 games played, the New York Liberty sit second in the WNBA standings, boasting an impressive record—10 wins and just a single loss. Their only defeat came on the road against the Indiana Fever, where they fell 88-102. However, the Liberty bounced back quickly, returning home to grind out a hard-fought 86-81 victory over the Atlanta Dream.
Despite struggling in the second and third quarters and facing an eight-point deficit heading into the final stretch, the Liberty showed resilience and snatched victory at the buzzer. Once again, Sabrina Ionescu led the way—she poured in 34 points, grabbed 7 rebounds, and dished out 5 assists. The second-best scorer was Breanna Stewart (23 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists), while Jonquel Jones secured a double-double (10 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists).
Throughout the season, Sabrina Ionescu has been the team's top scorer, averaging 20.8 points per game, while Jonquel Jones dominates the boards with an average of 10.2 rebounds per contest. In the upcoming game, Liberty will be without Leonie Fiebich, who is still recovering from injury.
The team boasts the league's best offense, putting up an average of 89.8 points per game, and ranks second for defensive reliability, conceding just 75.1 points on average.
When it comes to head-to-head clashes with Phoenix Mercury, Liberty have had no trouble at home—winning their last four consecutive home games against this opponent.
Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix Mercury enter this game in solid form—having won three straight and currently sitting third in the standings with a 9-4 record. Their last two games were both on the road and both ended in victories: first, a hard-fought 76-70 win over the Las Vegas Aces, followed by a confident 83-75 triumph over the Connecticut Sun.
Against the Aces, Satou Sabally was the standout performer, tallying 22 points and grabbing 9 rebounds. Against Connecticut, Sabally posted a double-double (12 points and 15 rebounds), with strong support from Alexa Held and Alysha Thomas—both scored 14 points, and Thomas also pulled down 8 rebounds.
Offensively, Phoenix have yet to impress—averaging 79.8 points per game, only the 8th-best mark in the league. However, their defense has been more reliable: conceding just 77.4 points on average, good for 5th in that category.
However, in head-to-head matchups with New York Liberty, Phoenix have struggled. Over the last six meetings, they've managed just one win—which came last season on their home court.
Key facts and head-to-head stats
- New York Liberty have won 10 of their last 11 games.
- New York Liberty have won 8 of their last 9 home games.
- Phoenix Mercury have won 4 of their last 5 games.
- Phoenix Mercury have won 3 of their last 4 road games.
- New York Liberty have won 5 of their last 6 head-to-head games.
- New York Liberty have won their last 4 home head-to-head games.
Prediction for New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury
Given the current form and the pre-game situation, New York Liberty look like clear favorites. They're playing at home, are in top physical and playing shape, and possess the league's most potent offense. Meanwhile, Phoenix Mercury have just played two tough road games in a row and have had one less day to recover. Considering the visitors' fatigue and Liberty's statistical edge, especially in direct matchups, we can expect a confident home win, with New York likely putting up big numbers. My bet for this game is New York Liberty individual total over 85 points at odds of 1.68.
