Luis Torres
Dailysports's expert
SSC Napoli
Genoa
On May 11, 2025, in Naples, as part of Serie A’s 36th round, Napoli will host Genoa. The match will take place at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 20:45 Central European Time. Let’s take a look at a bet focused on one team’s scoring potential in this clash.
Napoli
Napoli have hit top form as the season winds down. The team is riding a nine-match unbeaten streak, winning their last four without conceding a single goal. This dominant run has allowed the Neapolitans to capitalize on Inter’s slip-ups and, with three games to go, they sit atop the table. Napoli’s remaining schedule is relatively straightforward—three games left, all against lower-table opponents—so the Scudetto is entirely in their own hands: just win each of these matches.
The team has been especially formidable at home. In their last nine home fixtures, Napoli have claimed seven victories and drawn twice. They’ve kept clean sheets in their two most recent home matches, underlining their status as Serie A’s best defensive unit. Across 35 league games, Napoli have conceded just 25 goals—the best defensive record in the league.
The Neapolitans’ confidence is also boosted by a favorable head-to-head record against Genoa. In the last five meetings, Napoli have won three times and drawn twice.
- Also read: Newcastle vs Chelsea prediction: Should we expect a high-scoring Champions League playoff?
Genoa
For Genoa, the season is essentially over. The team is firmly mid-table in 13th place with 39 points, posing no threat to the European places and safe from relegation. Their place in next season’s Serie A is secure, and motivation for the remaining matches has clearly waned.
Recent performances have been far from convincing. Genoa are winless in their last four outings, losing three of those. In the previous round, they fell 1-2 at home to Milan, following defeats to Como (0-1 away) and Lazio (0-2 at home).
Genoa’s away form is particularly poor: they haven’t won on the road in nine consecutive matches—five losses and four draws. Their last away victory dates back to last calendar year. Attacking problems persist too—Genoa have scored just once in their last five away games.
On top of this poor form, Genoa are also facing a major personnel crisis: eight players are ruled out of the upcoming match due to injuries.
Key facts and head-to-head stats
- Napoli have won 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Napoli have claimed victory in their last 4 home games.
- Genoa have lost 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Napoli are unbeaten in 9 of their last 10 meetings with Genoa.
- 7 of the last 8 head-to-head encounters saw over 2.5 goals scored.
Probable lineups
- Napoli: Meret, Olivera, Spinazzola, Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, McTominay, Anguissa, Gilmour, Politano, Raspadori, Lukaku.
- Genoa: Leali, Martin, Vasquez, Norton-Cuffy, De Winter, Frendrup, Mazzini, Ahanor, Zanoli, Messias, Pinamonti.
Napoli vs Genoa match prediction
Napoli enter this match in excellent form and with maximum motivation—they’re fighting for the title and sit confidently atop the table with three rounds to go. Genoa, on the other hand, have nothing left to play for and are mired in a deep slump, especially away from home. Given Napoli’s firepower at the Maradona, their defensive solidity, and the clear gulf in class, a convincing win for the hosts looks likely. Napoli are almost certain to score, and with Genoa’s defensive frailties and lack of form, this could well turn into a high-scoring affair. My prediction: Napoli individual total over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.54.
