

One of the clashes of Serie A's 38th round will unfold this Sunday at San Siro, where AC Milan host Monza. I’m backing a bet on goals in this encounter, with solid chances for success.
Match preview
Milan stumbled in their last outing, suffering a 1-3 defeat away to Roma. This loss was the first time in 2025 that Sérgio Conceição’s side conceded more than two goals in a single match, abruptly ending their three-game winning streak. With 60 points, the Rossoneri have slipped to ninth in the table, with no mathematical chance of climbing above seventh. For the first time since 2019, Milan will miss out on European football.
Nevertheless, the team’s attacking line remains a key asset—with 59 Serie A goals, they trail just three clubs. At San Siro, Conceição’s men have been solid: just two defeats in their last 13 home league games, alongside five wins and six draws.
Alessandro Nesta’s Monza suffered another setback last round, falling 1-3 at home to Empoli. That marked their 25th defeat of the Serie A campaign—and their seventh in the last eight matches. Even more telling, it was the eighth time this season they’ve conceded three or more goals in a game. With just 18 points, Monza sit bottom of the table, trailing their nearest rival by a full 11 points.
Away fixtures have been a nightmare: Monza have lost 10 of their last 11 matches on the road, conceding 36 goals—Serie A’s worst away defensive record. Their defense has crumbled under pressure, while the team’s stability and motivation evaporated long before the season’s final whistle.
Probable lineups
- Milan: Mike Maignan – Matteo Gabbia, Strahinja Pavlović, Fikayo Tomori – Alejandro Jiménez, Tijjani Reijnders, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Yunus Musah – João Félix, Christian Pulisic, Santiago Giménez
- Monza: Samuele Pizzignacchio – Thomas Palacios, Arvid Brorsson, Andrea Carboni – Samuele Birindelli, Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro, Alessandro Bianco, Kevin Zeroli, Georgios Kyriakopoulos – Gianluca Caprari, Keita Baldé
Match facts and head-to-head
- Milan won the reverse fixture 1-0
- The "Over 2.5 goals" bet landed in three of the last five meetings
- Both teams scored in three of the last five encounters
Prediction
Both teams enter the season finale free from table pressure, setting the stage for open, attacking football. Milan are reliable scorers at home but prone to defensive lapses, while Monza, despite their underdog status, have managed to find the net on the road. I’m backing both teams to score—odds of 1.75 look justified.