Jan Novak
Dailysports's expert
The final round of the German Bundesliga brings an exciting clash between Mainz and Bayer Leverkusen. The match will take place on Saturday, 17 May, with kick-off scheduled for 15:30 Central European Time. I’m offering a bet on the winner of this game.
Match Preview
This season, Mainz almost became the Bundesliga’s biggest sensation. Just a year ago, they were battling relegation, but by early spring they stunned everyone with their presence among the league leaders.
Henriksen’s brave squad clung to fourth place and, for a significant period, were considered serious contenders for a Champions League spot. However, the pressure proved too much, and by mid-March the club’s results began to slip.
Mainz started alternating draws with defeats, and their winless streak dragged on for two months. Their hopes of a top-four finish were finally dashed by a loss to Bayern and a subsequent draw with Eintracht. Last round, they finally managed to snatch an away victory over Bochum, and now, in the season finale, the "Carnival Club" will try to secure their place in European competition.
A win against Bayer would almost certainly allow Mainz to hold onto sixth place, but the task won’t be easy. On the other hand, Mainz must match or better Leipzig’s result, as Leipzig will be facing Stuttgart.
Bayer are ending the season on a bittersweet note, not so much because of their results, but due to the departure of head coach Xabi Alonso. The Spaniard has become a true legend for the local fans, delivering Leverkusen their first-ever Bundesliga trophy.
His imminent exit marks the end of an era that will forever be part of the club’s history. Next season, Alonso will take charge at Real Madrid, and the "Pharmacists" are in for major changes.
Alonso’s farewell to the BayArena faithful last weekend was spoiled by Niko Kovac’s Borussia Dortmund, who are fiercely fighting for fourth place. Bayer dominated the first half, but ultimately suffered a 2-4 defeat.
The team had already secured second place behind Bayern, who reclaimed the top spot after a year. Bayer’s only motivation for the final game will be to give their departing hero, Xabi Alonso, a proper send-off from the dugout.
Match Facts
- Mainz have conceded in each of their last ten matches.
- At home, the "Carnival Club" have not lost since October last year, but their last four home games have ended in draws.
- Bayer have won just one of their last five matches.
- Under Xabi Alonso, Bayer have not lost a single away match in this Bundesliga campaign.
- Mainz average 1.4 goals per home game, while Bayer average 2.1 goals per away match.
Probable Lineups
- Mainz: Zentner, Da Costa, Bell, Ganche-Olsen, Caci, Sano, Mwene, Amiri, Nebel, Lee, Burkardt.
- Bayer Leverkusen: Hradecky, Hincapie, Tah, Tapsoba, Frimpong, Grimaldo, Xhaka, Andrich, Wirtz, Boniface, Schick.
H2H
- The teams haven’t drawn against each other since 2021.
- In the past eight years, Mainz have beaten Bayer at home only once.
Prediction
Bookmakers consider the home side the favourite, largely due to their strong motivation compared to their opponents. However, Bayer should not be underestimated; they will surely want to bid farewell to Alonso with a positive result. I expect the match to be full of intrigue, and my recommendation is to bet on the visitors with a +0.5 goal handicap.
