Luis Torres
Dailysports's expert
Las Vegas Aces
Phoenix Mercury
On June 16, 2025, the Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas will host a thrilling WNBA regular season clash between the Las Vegas Aces and the Phoenix Mercury. Let’s break down the teams’ scoring potential and find the best bet for this matchup.
Las Vegas Aces
The Las Vegas Aces have faced some challenges in recent outings. After suffering back-to-back defeats—first a heavy 95-68 loss to Golden State, then falling at home to the Sparks 97-89—the team returned to their own court to take on the Dallas Wings. That contest proved to be another nail-biter. The Aces controlled the game early, leading by nine at halftime, but found themselves trailing by 11 in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, they managed to turn things around, snatching a hard-fought 88-84 victory.
Jackie Young was the standout performer, racking up 28 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists. Jewell Loyd also made a significant impact with 21 points. However, the team is clearly feeling the absence of A'ja Wilson, sidelined with an injury. Her absence is crucial—she was the team’s leading scorer (averaging 20.9 points per game) and top rebounder (10 per game).
After nine games, the Aces sit sixth in the standings with a 5–4 record. Offensively, they’re strong—fifth in the league with an average of 82 points per game—but defense has been an issue, as they’re conceding 83.9 points on average.
At home, the Aces have played four games, winning three and losing just once—to the Sparks. When it comes to head-to-head battles with Phoenix Mercury, Las Vegas holds a clear advantage: the Aces have won 9 of their last 10 encounters with Phoenix.
Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix Mercury come into this matchup following a confident 93-80 home win over the Dallas Wings. Satou Sabally led the way, posting 20 points, 9 rebounds, and 2 assists. Sabally is the team’s key contributor this season, averaging 20.5 points and 7.7 rebounds per game—the best marks for Mercury in this campaign.
Phoenix currently sit fourth in the standings with a 7-4 record. The team plays a balanced brand of basketball: they’re ninth in the league for scoring, averaging 79.9 points per game, while conceding 78.3 points on average defensively.
It’s worth noting that Phoenix have played most of their games at home, with only three road games so far—winning just one. This could be a factor in the upcoming contest, as the Mercury are still searching for consistency away from home.
In recent head-to-heads, Las Vegas Aces have taken the last three meetings against Phoenix Mercury. The last time Mercury beat the Aces was in May of last year, and that win actually came on the road.
Key facts and head-to-head stats
- Las Vegas Aces have won 12 of their last 14 home games.
- Phoenix Mercury have lost 5 of their last 6 road games.
- Las Vegas Aces have won 9 of the last 10 head-to-head matchups.
- Las Vegas Aces have won 5 of the last 6 home meetings against Phoenix Mercury.
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury prediction
Both teams enter this game determined to strengthen their positions in the standings. The Las Vegas Aces remain an offensive powerhouse even without A'ja Wilson, while the Phoenix Mercury are in steady form and can rely on leaders like Satou Sabally. The Aces dominate the head-to-head history, but the current state of Mercury suggests a tight contest. Given the playing styles of both teams, expect a hard-fought and high-scoring game with both sides having a real chance. My pick for this matchup is over 164 total points at odds of 1.81.
