Jason Collins
Dailysports's expert
Daniil Medvedev
Alex De Minaur
The ATP Finals live up to their name as the season’s culmination, with top players looking forward to a well-deserved break afterward. Here's my forecast for the group-stage clash between Daniil Medvedev and Alex De Minaur. Can the Australian capture his first victory at this elite tournament?
Daniil Medvedev
This year hasn’t been memorable for Daniil Medvedev. The Russian failed to win any titles, something that hasn’t happened since 2017. For comparison, he took five titles last season. Medvedev came close to claiming a Grand Slam title at the beginning of the year, but after taking a 2-0 lead in sets, he lost to Jannik Sinner in the Australian Open final.
It’s mostly thanks to his solid performances at the Grand Slams that Medvedev qualified for the ATP Finals, though expectations for his performance here are low. His tournament started with a disappointing loss to American Taylor Fritz, 4-6, 3-6. Medvedev’s stats were underwhelming, with only 27% of points won on his second serve and no breaks.
Alex De Minaur
The Australian hasn’t had a standout season either, but he performed at a consistent level, enough to secure his debut at the ATP Finals. At 25 years old, De Minaur is ranked eighth in the world.
In his first match, De Minaur faced world No. 1 Jannik Sinner. Although he put up a fight, the gap in class showed, resulting in a 3-6, 4-6 loss. He still has a chance to progress, with Fritz and Medvedev as his main rivals for a spot in the next round.
Match Stats
- Medvedev has a 28-13 record on hard courts this year.
- De Minaur has won 30 out of 41 matches on indoor hard courts.
- Odds for the match: Medvedev to win: 1.74, De Minaur to win: 2.17.
Head-to-Head
The two have faced off nine times, with Medvedev leading 6-3. However, De Minaur won their only encounter this season, on the clay courts of Roland Garros.
Prediction
There’s no clear favorite in this matchup, though I lean toward De Minaur, primarily because Medvedev’s form seems uncertain. This could be a challenging and closely contested match, with either player capable of taking it. My pick is De Minaur to win with a +2.5 game handicap.
