On November 11, the John Newcombe group matches will take place at the ATP Finals in Turin, with Carlos Alcaraz facing Casper Ruud. Here's my analysis and prediction for the match – does the Norwegian have any chance?
Carlos Alcaraz
The Spanish player has had a stellar season, boasting Grand Slam titles at Wimbledon and Roland Garros, alongside titles in Indian Wells and Beijing. In the recent high-stakes exhibition tournament in Saudi Arabia, Alcaraz reached the final, only to be bested by Sinner.
Currently ranked third in the world at age 21, Alcaraz remains a formidable presence on the court. While he occasionally suffers unexpected losses to mid-ranked players, he is undoubtedly a top-tier competitor and a strong contender for the title at this tournament.
Casper Ruud
Ruud has found his best results on clay this season, securing titles in Geneva and Barcelona, reaching the finals in Monte Carlo, and a semifinal finish at Roland Garros. The 25-year-old Norwegian currently holds the world No. 7 ranking.
However, since September, Ruud’s form has declined significantly, with losses in seven of his last eight matches. His recent struggles raise doubts about his ability to reach his peak level, which will be essential to challenge Alcaraz in this matchup.
Match Facts
- Alcaraz has 25 wins out of 31 matches on hard courts this season.
- Ruud has won 22 out of 36 matches on indoor surfaces this year.
- The odds for this match reflect Alcaraz’s strong favoritism: Alcaraz at 1.09, Ruud at 7.9.
Head-to-Head
Alcaraz leads their head-to-head with a 4–1 record, showing clear dominance in past encounters.
Prediction
While both players are highly skilled, the bookmakers see little intrigue in this matchup, and Alcaraz is the clear favorite. Given his higher ranking, head-to-head advantage, and superior current form, I predict a straightforward win for Alcaraz and recommend a bet on him with a -4.5 game handicap.
Jason Collins
Dailysports's expert
Carlos Alcaraz
Casper Ruud
