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On Saturday, January 25, Atlético Madrid will host Villarreal in a La Liga round 21 encounter. The game kicks off at 16:15 CET, and here’s my analysis and betting suggestion for this clash.
Atlético vs Villarreal: Match Facts and H2H
- Atlético have suffered only one loss in their last 17 matches across all competitions.
- The Madrid side have won seven consecutive home games.
- Villarreal have managed just one win in their last five away games.
- Atlético have conceded only 13 goals in 20 La Liga matches, boasting the league’s best defense.
- Villarreal have conceded 31 goals, the fourth-worst defensive record in La Liga.
- Atlético have won 42% of their matches without conceding, compared to Villarreal's 9%.
- Villarreal have scored in both halves in 45% of their matches, while Atlético have done so in 32%.
- Their last head-to-head clash ended in a 2-2 draw. In their previous five meetings, Atlético have won twice, Villarreal once, with two draws.
Atlético vs Villarreal: Match Preview
Atlético Madrid suffered a surprising 0-1 loss in their last La Liga match against Leganés, an unexpected result for Diego Simeone’s side. However, they bounced back midweek with a 2-1 win over Bayer Leverkusen in the UEFA Champions League, boosting morale ahead of this game. Atlético currently sit second in La Liga with 44 points from 20 matches, trailing the league leaders by just two points. With the title race heating up, their defensive solidity—only 13 goals conceded—is a key strength.
Villarreal are fifth in the La Liga standings, battling for a UEFA Champions League spot. With 33 points from 20 matches, they are six points behind the fourth-placed team. A five-game winless streak at the end of 2024 allowed their rivals to pull ahead. However, Villarreal delivered an impressive 4-0 win over Mallorca in their last match, creating a three-point gap over their closest competitor. Despite their fifth-place position, defensive issues remain a concern, with 31 goals conceded in 20 games—the fourth-worst in the league.
Probable Lineups
- Atlético Madrid: Oblak; Molina, Giménez, Lenglet, Le Normand; Simeone, De Paul, Barrios, Gallagher; Griezmann, Álvarez.
- Villarreal: Luis Júnior; Femenía, Foyth, Costa, S. Cardona; Pino, Guye, Parejo, Baena; Pérez, Barry.
Prediction
Atlético Madrid’s recent Champions League victory over Leverkusen will undoubtedly provide a confidence boost. Villarreal’s form remains inconsistent, particularly defensively, which makes this a challenging away fixture for them. Considering Atlético’s strong home record, I predict a victory for the hosts. My betting recommendation is to back Atlético Madrid to win, with odds of 1.68.
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