Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa prediction, H2H & betting tips on January 23, 2025

Jason Collins Jason Collins Dailysports's expert
Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa prediction Photo: https://sacas.ac.in/ Author unknown
Aryna Sabalenka Aryna Sabalenka
Australian Open 23 jan 2025, 03:30 Aryna Sabalenka - Paula Badosa
Melbourne, Rod Laver Arena
Paula Badosa Paula Badosa
Prediction on game Total over 19,5
Odds: 1.55

Bonus up to $130/€100

In the first semifinal of the Australian Open, Aryna Sabalenka will face Paula Badosa. Here's my betting prediction for this crucial event.

Aryna Sabalenka

The Belarusian star arrived in Melbourne with one goal: winning the title. So far, everything is going according to plan, and she’s just two wins away from securing her third consecutive Australian Open crown. It’s worth noting that Sabalenka, 26, is currently the world’s No. 1 player.

At this tournament, Sabalenka has won in straight sets against Sloane Stephens, Clara Tauson, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, and Mirra Andreeva. Her most challenging match came in the quarterfinals, where the experienced Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova gave her a tough time. Ultimately, Sabalenka prevailed 6:2, 2:6, 6:3. Comparatively, Iga Swiatek has looked stronger at this tournament, and the two could theoretically meet in the final.

Paula Badosa

The Spanish tennis player is well-known among tennis fans. Once ranked No. 2 in the world, she has reached a Grand Slam semifinal for the first time. At 27, Badosa currently holds the No. 12 spot in the world rankings.

Throughout the tournament, Badosa has dropped just one set, in a grueling match against the tough Ukrainian Marta Kostyuk. Her standout performance came against world No. 3 Coco Gauff. Badosa was the underdog in that match but managed an impressive 7:5, 6:4 victory. Riding a wave of confidence, Badosa could take advantage of Sabalenka’s occasional vulnerabilities.

Match Facts

  • Sabalenka has won all ten matches this season.
  • Badosa has six wins in eight matches this season.
  • The odds for this match are as follows: Sabalenka win (P1) – 1.29, Badosa win (P2) – 3.85.

Head-to-Head

In head-to-head encounters, Sabalenka leads 5–2. However, if we focus solely on hard court matches, the advantage swings to Badosa. The players faced off a month ago in an exhibition match consisting of just one set, which Sabalenka won 6:2.

Prediction

It’s no secret that the two players are close friends, but with a Grand Slam final at stake, personal relationships take a backseat. Sabalenka is the clear favorite, though I anticipate a tough battle from Badosa. My suggestion is to bet on the total games to exceed 19.5.

Prediction on game Total over 19,5
Odds: 1.55

Bonus up to $130/€100

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