Jason Collins
Dailysports's expert
Aryna Sabalenka
Madison Keys
In the Australian Open women’s final, Aryna Sabalenka will face Madison Keys. Here’s my betting prediction for this highly anticipated match: can the Belarusian justify her status as the favorite?
Aryna Sabalenka
The Belarusian arrived in Melbourne as one of the tournament’s top contenders and has lived up to expectations, currently holding the world No. 1 ranking. Adding to her advantages is the fact that this will be her third consecutive Australian Open final, having won the previous two.
While Sabalenka hasn’t been flawless throughout the tournament, she has shown remarkable resilience. Her toughest match came against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, the only one she won in three sets. Sabalenka’s game relies on relentless power and aggression, often overwhelming opponents who struggle to believe they can beat her.
Madison Keys
Reaching the final is a significant achievement for the American, who has previously played in a Grand Slam final but came up short. Now, she has a second chance. Keys faced a challenging draw, overcoming several strong opponents, including a dramatic semifinal victory against Iga Swiatek. In that match, the Pole was the favorite, and Keys had to save a match point in the third set when Swiatek served at 6:5. Keys ultimately pulled off a hard-fought win, 6:7, 6:1, 7:6.
At 29 years old and ranked 14th in the world, this final represents a golden opportunity for Keys, as similar chances may not come again.
Match Facts
- Sabalenka is on an 11-match winning streak this season.
- Keys has played 14 matches this season, winning 13 of them.
- The odds for this match are as follows: Sabalenka win (P1) – 1.31, Keys win (P2) – 3.65.
Head-to-Head
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 4–1, including a 3–0 record on hard courts.
Prediction
A Sabalenka-Swiatek final may have been a more anticipated showdown, but Keys disrupted those plans. Sabalenka is the favorite in this matchup, and while Keys has experience, the psychological pressure of such a stage might be overwhelming for her. My prediction is a Sabalenka victory with a -3.5 game handicap.
