Luis Torres
Dailysports's expert
Andrey Rublev
Carlos Alcaraz
On July 6, 2025, Andrey Rublev and Carlos Alcaraz will clash in the Wimbledon Round of 16. Let’s break down a bet on the total number of games in this high-stakes matchup.
Andrey Rublev
Andrey Rublev hasn’t quite found his top form in the 2025 season. Currently ranked 14th in the ATP standings, he holds an 18-14 win-loss record. His lone title this year came early on, when he triumphed in Doha on hard courts. Rublev’s career-best ranking is world No. 5, a position he reached back in 2021.
At this season’s Grand Slams, Rublev’s performances have been underwhelming: he suffered a shocking first-round exit at the Australian Open and made it to the Round of 16 at Roland Garros, where he fell to Jannik Sinner.
Rublev’s Wimbledon record stands at 9 wins and 5 losses. Last year, he was knocked out in the opening round, while his best showing on London’s grass was a quarterfinal run in 2023, where he lost to Novak Djokovic.
Still, Rublev has looked confident at this year’s Wimbledon. He opened with a 3-1 win over Serbian Laslo Djere, followed by another 3-1 victory over South Africa’s Lloyd Harris, and then swept experienced Frenchman Adrian Mannarino 3-0 in the third round.
Carlos Alcaraz
Two-time defending Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz is marching confidently toward another title defense. He currently sits at No. 2 in the ATP world rankings, boasting an impressive 42-5 record this season and already five titles to his name. One of those came at Roland Garros, where he staged a dramatic comeback in the final against Jannik Sinner, overturning a 0-2 set deficit to win 3-2.
Alcaraz has now won five Grand Slam titles—two of them at Wimbledon—making grass courts among his favorites. His overall Grand Slam record is a stellar 71 wins to just 12 losses, with an 18-2 record specifically at Wimbledon.
Heading into Wimbledon 2025, Carlos clinched the title at the London grass-court event, underlining his superb form and adaptability to the surface.
This year’s campaign didn’t start smoothly: in the opening round, he narrowly escaped defeat against seasoned Fabio Fognini, sealing victory only in the fifth set, 3-2. He breezed past Britain’s Oliver Tarvetta in the second round, and then overcame Germany’s Jan-Lennard Struff 3-1 in the third round.
Match facts
In the 2025 season, Andrey Rublev has 18 wins and 14 losses.
Carlos Alcaraz holds a 42-5 record this year.
Here are the odds for this matchup: P1 – 8.26, P2 – 1.08.
Head-to-head
Their head-to-head stands level at two wins apiece, with three of their meetings on hard courts and one on clay last year.
Prediction
The upcoming showdown between Andrey Rublev and Carlos Alcaraz promises fireworks. Alcaraz looks the stronger contender this season: he’s cruising through the tournament, has already lifted five titles in 2025—including Roland Garros—and is a two-time Wimbledon champion. His versatility, grass-court adaptation, and mental resilience make him the tournament favorite. Rublev has picked up steam during this Wimbledon, dispatching three opponents with authority, but overall his season has been inconsistent. Still, this won’t be a walk in the park for Alcaraz—Rublev is in good form and could well steal a set. My bet for this match: total games over 32.5 at odds of 1.7.
