Luis Torres
Dailysports's expert
On May 7, 2025, the Estadio Alejandro Villanueva in Lima will host a crucial Group D clash in the Copa Libertadores as the local side Alianza Lima faces off against São Paulo on Matchday 4. Let's dive into a bet focused on the teams' attacking output in this upcoming encounter.
Alianza Lima
After three rounds, Alianza Lima sits third in Group D with four points to their name. The Peruvian side opened their current Copa Libertadores campaign with a home defeat to Libertad Asunción, 0-1. In the second round, Alianza earned a thrilling 2-2 away draw against São Paulo, and in the third, they celebrated a 3-2 home win over Talleres Córdoba.
In the Peruvian national league, Alianza Lima is currently fifth after 10 rounds, having collected 19 points. They trail the leaders by just four points and remain very much in the hunt for the top spots. However, in their most recent Liga 1 fixture, Alianza unexpectedly lost at home to Cienciano 0-1—a first defeat in their last six outings.
When it comes to head-to-head history with São Paulo, Alianza Lima's record is less than favorable. In the last five meetings between the sides, the Peruvians have failed to secure a single victory. Their only positive result was the 2-2 draw in the second round of this Copa Libertadores campaign; all other encounters ended in defeat.
São Paulo
São Paulo have looked assured in this season's Copa Libertadores, topping Group D after three games with seven points. They kicked off with a 1-0 away win over Talleres Córdoba, followed by a 2-2 draw with Alianza Lima, and then a 2-0 triumph over Libertad Asunción in the third round. The Brazilian outfit is on a sensational run, unbeaten in 11 straight matches across all competitions—four wins and seven draws.
In the Brazilian national championship, São Paulo sits 10th after seven rounds, having picked up nine points. The club is also progressing in the Copa do Brasil, where they claimed a 2-1 victory over Náutico in the first leg of the round of 32.
However, they are dealing with a number of squad issues ahead of this fixture. No less than seven players will be unavailable, including Oscar, Luiz Gustavo, Igor Vinicius, and Carmo Henrique.
Probable lineups
- Alianza Lima: Viscara, Garcés, Lagos, Huamán, Trauco, Noriega, Lavandeira, Arroyo, Seppelini, Quevedo, Paolo Guerrero.
- São Paulo: Rafael, Ferraresi, Franco, Ruan, Wendell, Lucas Ferreira, Mateus, Bobadilla, Alisson, Ferreira, André Silva.
Key stats and head-to-head
- Alianza Lima have won 3 of their last 4 matches.
- Alianza Lima have scored first in 3 of their last 4 games.
- São Paulo are unbeaten in 13 of their last 14 matches.
- The first leg between these sides in the current Copa Libertadores ended in a 2-2 draw.
Alianza Lima vs São Paulo match prediction
Both teams come into this clash in strong form. Alianza Lima, playing at home, have a realistic chance of advancing from the group and will be determined to make the most of their home advantage. This is especially crucial given São Paulo's squad problems, with several key players ruled out. Nevertheless, the Brazilians are in a solid rhythm and have been delivering consistent results. The first meeting between these sides ended in an entertaining 2-2 draw. My bet for this match: over 2 total goals at odds of 1.86.
